ArabiaWeather reveals new details on upcoming cold snap

The latest numerical model updates from ArabiaWeather have shown a clear change in weather forecasts for the coming days. Forecasts now indicate a rainy low-pressure system on Thursday, followed by the approach of an extremely cold polar air mass, though without fully deepening into the region.

The latest updates suggest a weaker likelihood of widespread snowfall, with snow limited to southern highlands and sporadic occurrences in other areas. The focus remains on a rainy low-pressure system on Thursday and Friday, followed by a widespread cold snap and frost.

Weather details based on numerical models:

• Thursday: A second-degree low-pressure system bringing rain to various regions.
• Friday: The low-pressure system weakens, with some rain showers in the north and center of the country.
• Saturday: Rain showers return in the afternoon in the north, later extending to the central and southern regions.
• Sunday: Possible morning snow showers on high elevations, followed by relative stabilization with extremely cold weather.
• Monday: A chance of the cold air mass retreating, with renewed snowfall possibilities, particularly in southern Jordan.

Incoming frost and ice wave

Forecasts indicate a strong wave of frost and freezing conditions during nighttime and morning hours on Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday, necessitating caution while driving and taking necessary precautions.

Despite these forecasts, changes in the weather pattern remain possible, especially concerning the impact of the cold air mass on Monday, as the timeframe is still relatively distant, which could lead to further updates in the coming days.

Key updates from numerical models:

• European model (ECMWF): The latest update indicates a rapid withdrawal of the polar air mass toward the northeast before fully deepening into the eastern Mediterranean basin. While precipitation chances remain, snowfall will be mostly limited to southern Jordan's highlands, with scattered and irregular snow showers in other high-altitude areas from early Sunday until Monday morning.

• American model (GFS): Forecasts a further decline in snowfall chances due to the possible detachment of the polar air mass over Turkey, weakening its polar feed and causing a rapid withdrawal northward. As a result, snowfall will be limited to brief and scattered snow showers in southern Jordan, preceded by a rainy low-pressure system on Thursday and Friday, followed by humid currents on Saturday, and then a widespread frost wave.

• German model (ICON): Has significantly downgraded its forecast, now aligning with other models, predicting a rapid withdrawal of the polar air mass before deepening, reducing snowfall chances except for southern Jordan's highlands, with sporadic snow showers in other regions.

• Canadian model (GEM) and British model (UKMET): No new sub-updates recorded.