US considers seizing Iranian oil tankers to ramp up pressure on Tehran: WSJ

• Proposed Economic Escalation: The Trump administration is weighing the seizure of "shadow fleet" tankers carrying Iranian oil—a tactic successfully used against Venezuela—to cut off Tehran’s main revenue stream and force concessions in stalled nuclear negotiations.
• Significant Risks of Retaliation: Implementation remains on hold due to fears that Iran might retaliate by mining the Strait of Hormuz or seizing allied vessels, which could cause a global oil price spike and a return to 1980s-style "tanker wars."

The United States is actively considering the seizure of tankers transporting Iranian oil as a means to intensify economic pressure on Tehran, particularly in efforts to secure concessions in ongoing nuclear negotiations.

This strategy, which mirrors recent actions against Venezuelan vessels, is under discussion within the Trump administration but remains on hold due to apprehensions regarding potential Iranian retaliation and disruptions to global oil markets.

According to US officials who spoke to The Wall Street Journal, the proposal involves targeting sanctioned ships within the so-called shadow fleet, a network of approximately 1,000 vessels used to transport illicit oil from sanctioned nations such as Iran and Russia to buyers in China and elsewhere.

More than 20 such ships involved in Iranian oil transport have been sanctioned by the US Treasury Department this year, positioning them as potential targets for interception.

The Treasury Department recently imposed sanctions on an additional 14 vessels registered in countries including Barbados, Cameroon, and Panama, along with associated shipping companies, for violating sanctions on Iranian petroleum.

The primary objective of this approach is to curtail Iran's principal revenue stream, thereby compelling Tehran to agree to restrictions on its nuclear program.

US officials indicated to The Wall Street Journal that this option is one of several under White House consideration, following Iran's refusal to halt uranium enrichment, address its missile program, or cease support for regional militias during talks.

President Trump has ordered a significant US military buildup in the region amid these negotiations and in response to recent protests in Iran, where the government conducted a violent crackdown on demonstrators protesting economic hardships.

However, implementation faces substantial challenges. Seizing a sanctioned vessel would necessitate diverting US personnel and naval assets to escort the tanker to a secure location for storage of the Iranian crude.

Assets such as the USS Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier, currently positioned off the coast of Oman near the Persian Gulf, and accompanying guided-missile destroyers could facilitate such operations.

The US Coast Guard, based in Bahrain, would likely lead boardings under its law-enforcement authority to enforce sanctions.

Experts and officials have highlighted the risks of escalation. Erik Meyersson, chief emerging markets strategist at the Swedish bank SEB, told The Wall Street Journal, “You could just sit outside in the Arabian Sea and then start with one tanker and then see what happens.”

Bader Al-Saif, an academic at Kuwait University, emphasized the potential for Iranian countermeasures, stating to the Journal, “Blocking the strait isn’t in anyone’s interest, including Iran’s. But if they feel that they’re cornered, they’ll do it. And they have the logistics to do it.”

Al-Saif further noted regarding President Trump, “It’s not Venezuela. I think he knows this.”

Iranian retaliation could include seizing tankers from US allies or mining the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint through which up to 25% of the world's petroleum transits.

Such actions would likely precipitate a sharp increase in oil prices, inviting domestic political backlash in the US.

Historical precedents, such as the 1980s “tanker war” during which Iran attacked hundreds of ships, underscore these concerns.

Recent incidents heighten tensions: Last week, an Iranian drone and two boats from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps approached a US-flagged tanker in the Strait of Hormuz, prompting a US warship and aircraft escort, as reported by US Central Command.

The US Transportation Department issued a warning on Monday, stating that vessels “have long been at risk of being hailed, queried, boarded, detained, or seized by Iranian forces,” and advised coordination with US military forces.

This proposed expansion builds on the US strategy in Venezuela, where seizures of sanctioned tankers have reduced crude loadings to about half of normal levels, according to shipping analytics firm Kpler. While effective there, applying it to Iran involves navigating a more volatile geopolitical landscape, with China as Iran's largest oil buyer relying on discounted supplies via the shadow fleet.

White House officials, speaking to The Wall Street Journal, affirmed that President Trump prefers diplomatic resolutions but maintains multiple options should negotiations falter. As of now, no seizures have occurred in the sea lanes near Iran, though the legal and military framework is in place.