Why Somaliland, why now, and the Houthi question: Unpacking 'Israel’s' Red Sea move

• 'Israel' sees Somaliland as a strategic foothold in the Red Sea amid Houthi threats.

• Analysts warn the move may deepen regional tensions and internal divisions.

The reports claim that 'Israel’s' recognition of Somaliland is motivated by risks to shipping lanes around the Bab el-Mandab Strait, which is critical for 'Israeli' trade.

The Ethiopian channel argues that naval patrols alone are insufficient to secure these routes. 'Israel', therefore, needs a “forward position”, a location from which it can monitor Houthi activity and maintain operational security.

In this context, Somaliland is presented as a safer and more strategically useful option than Somalia, which is seen as unstable and heavily influenced by foreign powers. 

Read more: Arab, Islamic states hold emergency meeting, reject 'Israel’s' recognition of Somaliland

Somaliland: Strategic Depth or Political Gamble?

The reports emphasize that this potential cooperation could serve mutual interests: 'Israel' gains “strategic depth” in the Red Sea, while Somaliland seeks international recognition.

The channel describes Somaliland as a reliable partner: a Muslim-majority region not aligned with Iran, Turkey, or extremist groups, and one aspiring to formal statehood.

However, the coverage also highlights significant risks. The Somali federal government, reportedly supported by Turkey and Qatar, could perceive 'Israel’s' move as hostile, potentially complicating regional peacekeeping efforts. Egypt and Saudi Arabia are said to be wary of regional fragmentation, and Iran and Turkey might interpret an 'Israeli' presence in Somaliland as a direct threat.

Read more: Jordan completely rejects 'Israel’s' recognition of Somaliland

Critical Views from Hebrew Media

Other Hebrew media sources suggest that 'Israel’s' recognition may have been hasty, with benefits outweighed by the risks. Analysts argue that the move:

Exacerbates internal divisions within Somaliland, especially in contested regions like Sool and Sanaag, where loyalty to the Somali federal government remains strong, and fails to provide a meaningful military advantage against the Houthis, given Somaliland’s limited ground capabilities.

The reports also caution that the recognition is unlikely to advance the Abraham Accords or other regional diplomatic initiatives meaningfully.

Mossad’s Role and 'Israeli' Political Calculus

Hebrew media reports note that 'Israeli' Prime Minister Netanyahu publicly thanked the Foreign Minister and Mossad Chief for facilitating Somaliland’s recognition. Meanwhile, critical voices suggest that the Mossad may have overestimated the strategic payoff and underestimated the Houthi threat, as well as broader regional instability in places like Sudan.

Sources claim that 'Israeli' intelligence infrastructure has been quietly established in Somaliland over recent years to strengthen security ties, a move signaling intentions beyond symbolic recognition.

Conclusion: Recognition with High Stakes

While 'Israel’s; recognition of Somaliland suggests a strategic ambition to expand influence in the Red Sea, Hebrew media reports, citing Ethiopian analysis, argue that the risks may outweigh the benefits.

Potential consequences include:

• Heightened internal divisions within Somaliland
• Regional pushback from Somalia, Turkey, Iran, and neighboring states
• Limited real impact on countering the Houthis or strengthening regional alliances.

In short, the move exposes both 'Israel' and Somaliland to significant risks while offering unclear strategic gains.