Snow in Amman? Rare polar phenomenon to bring colder winter to Jordan

• A rare "Sudden Stratospheric Warming" of the polar vortex has triggered an exceptional 142% average autumn rainfall in Jordan, with a 67% probability of snowfall in Amman during a significantly colder 2025–2026 winter.
• The extreme weather has caused a humanitarian crisis in Gaza, where 60% of the annual rainfall occurred in autumn alone, resulting in 12 deaths and the flooding of 22,000 tents housing displaced families.

Mohammed Al-Shaker, founder of weather forecasting company ArabiaWeather, has revealed the outlook for the current rain season, confirming that vast areas of the kingdom have already exceeded their typical annual averages.

Speaking during an interview on Roya TV’s "Nabd Al-Balad" programm, Al-Shaker described the autumn rainfall performance as "exceptional."

He noted that the kingdom achieved a general average of 142% of its usual autumn precipitation, completing 40% of the entire rainy season before the start of the "Marba'aniya" (the traditional 40-day peak winter period).

Rare Atmospheric Warming and Cold Surges

Al-Shaker attributed these atmospheric shifts to a rare phenomenon known as "Sudden Stratospheric Warming" of the polar vortex. This specific climatic condition has occurred only three times in the last 70 years.

According to Al-Shaker, this warming reshapes global weather patterns, forcing intense cold air masses toward the region.

Consequently, the 2025–2026 winter is expected to be colder than average, with statistical models showing a 67% probability of snowfall for the capital, Amman.

Monthly Forecast: January to March 2026

The forecast for the coming months suggests a sustained pattern:

• January 2026: Temperatures are expected to remain below average with rainfall near normal levels. However, there are high warnings for frost formation and flash floods.
• February 2026: The probability of snow is expected to rise to "medium-to-high" for mountainous highlands, accompanied by cold, rainy conditions.
• March 2026: Unlike previous years, March is expected to maintain a “purely wintry character”, which Al-Shaker said will aid in the recovery of watercourses and vegetation damaged by last year's drought.

Humanitarian Catastrophe in Gaza

Al-Shaker highlighted "shocking numbers" regarding the Gaza Strip. The enclave received 60% of its entire annual rainfall during the autumn months alone.

The downpours, which ranged between 50mm and 250mm, triggered an immense humanitarian crisis.

The floods caused 12 deaths and affected 55,000 families. Furthermore, roughly 22,000 tents housing displaced persons were submerged, a situation exacerbated by the total collapse of local infrastructure.

Despite the tragedy in Gaza, Al-Shaker expressed optimism for the Levant's agricultural and water sectors, noting that this winter promises significant replenishment for reservoirs and springs after a period of drought.