Day 206 | Iran warns of ‘painful’ response if US launches new attack

Iraq’s Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi said Iran has prevented Iraqi oil tankers from passing through the Strait of Hormuz, accusing Tehran of seeking to drive up global oil prices.

“This is not about being close to them or not. Regardless, they want to create pressure,” al-Zaidi said.

He added that Iraq has lost approximately $60 billion in revenues since the war began, along with around 60 percent of its monthly export revenue.

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi has criticized the influence of the ‘Israel’ lobby on US foreign policy toward Iran, sharing an excerpt from an opinion article published by Israel Hayom.

In a social media post, Araghchi said the “Israel lobby is getting less shy about its grip on US policy toward Iran.”

He highlighted a passage from the article calling for deeper military, technological, intelligence, and economic integration between the US and ‘Israel’.

Araghchi described the proposal as an effort to ensure that “America pays a price for any slight against Israel,” adding that it was “high time for Washington to break free from these shackles.”

His comments come amid ongoing tensions between Tehran and Washington over US sanctions and broader regional policy.

US and ‘Israeli’ officials had not publicly responded to Araghchi’s post at the time of publication.

The United States has refused to issue visas to members of Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian’s media team ahead of his visit to New York for the United Nations General Assembly, Iranian state media reported Monday.

Habib Abbasi, director of public relations at the Iranian president’s office, said the requests had been followed up but the visas were not granted.

Abbasi described the decision as “an attempt to prevent the Iranian president’s voice and Iran’s narrative from reaching the world.”

The US has approved visas for Pezeshkian and Iran’s “core delegation” to attend the UN General Assembly, while restrictions remain on some members of the wider delegation.

Pezeshkian is scheduled to address the General Assembly on Wednesday.

Iran’s national carrier, Iran Air, said flights from Tehran, Mashhad, and Isfahan to Najaf, Iraq, will continue operating despite the threat of new US sanctions.

According to Iran Air’s public relations department, the flights will operate according to the previously announced schedule.

The airline did not indicate that the threat of US secondary sanctions would affect its scheduled services to Najaf.

The announcement came after US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent warned that Iranian airlines could be effectively cut off from international aviation services starting Wednesday.

Bessent said foreign companies providing services to Iranian carriers could face secondary sanctions under Washington’s Iran sanctions regime.

He specifically cited services including aircraft fueling, landing assistance, and ticket sales, warning that providers could face penalties and lose access to the US dollar-based financial system.

The measures are part of Washington’s broader campaign to increase economic pressure on Iran and restrict its access to international financial and commercial networks.

For now, Iran Air says it intends to maintain its scheduled Najaf services despite the US warning.

Yemen’s government forces said they targeted Houthi fighters and supply lines in the Bab al-Mandab area and Al-Bayda governorate.

In a statement, the forces said the strikes targeted “elements and supply lines of the Houthi militia.”

A second vessel has been hit by “debris from an unknown projectile” in the Strait of Hormuz, according to the UK Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO).

The outbound vessel was near Tawakkul Island when its master reported the incident, UKMTO said.

No injuries or environmental impact have been reported. The vessel will continue to its next port of call.

The incident marks the second reported maritime incident involving a vessel in the Strait of Hormuz today.

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has warned that Iranian airlines will face severe difficulties operating worldwide within two days as US sanctions on Iran’s aviation sector take effect.

“All the Iranian airlines will be shut down around the world,” Bessent said in an interview with US broadcaster CNBC.

He warned countries and companies that continue providing services to Iranian carriers that they could face US financial penalties.

“If they land you cannot provide them with fuel, you cannot provide them with landing services, you cannot sell them tickets or you will be knocked out of the dollar system,” Bessent said.

On September 8, the US announced a new package of sanctions targeting Iran’s aviation industry, aiming to “ground” the remaining 27 Iranian airlines operating internationally.

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said all Iranian airlines could be shut down from Wednesday as Washington threatens secondary sanctions against companies providing services to them.

Speaking to CNBC, Bessent said service providers could face exclusion from the US dollar system if they refuel Iranian aircraft, provide landing services or sell tickets for Iranian airlines.

Bessent also said Chinese officials have been “very engaged” in Washington’s economic pressure campaign against Iran ahead of Chinese President Xi Jinping’s planned visit to the United States next week.

He said the US has held positive discussions with Chinese financial authorities, including People’s Bank of China Governor Pan Gongsheng, over compliance with US sanctions on Iran.

Yemeni President Rashad Al-Alimi asked US President Donald Trump for support for Yemen’s internationally recognized government in its confrontation with the Houthis, Reuters reported, citing sources familiar with the call.

The two presidents spoke by phone on Sunday, according to the sources.

Al-Alimi requested US support for the government against the Houthis, but Trump did not commit to providing military assistance, the sources said.

A spokesman for Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has warned that US intelligence centers are within Iran’s reach as tensions rise over the possibility of renewed US-‘Israeli’ attacks in the Middle East.

General Hossein Mohebbi, in comments reported by Iranian Press TV, said the US had been forced to relocate troops and military equipment from bases in the region to more distant locations.

“US intelligence centres are within our reach,” Mohebbi said, adding that the IRGC is prepared for “a prolonged war.”

Nearly 130,000 people have been displaced in Yemen over the past several weeks as insecurity continues to worsen, according to the International Organization for Migration (IOM).

The organization said the surge in displacement reflects the deteriorating security situation, forcing thousands of families to flee their homes in search of safety.

• The US Treasury had previously sanctioned 27 Iranian airlines over their alleged role in supporting Iran’s government and military activities. 

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said that all remaining Iranian airlines will be shut down worldwide by Sep. 23 as Washington intensifies sanctions against Iran’s aviation sector.

Speaking as the US expands its economic pressure campaign against Tehran, Bessent said the measures would cut Iranian airlines off from key international aviation services, including access to landing facilities, refueling and ticket sales, according to reports.

The announcement follows a Sep. 8 decision by the US Treasury Department to sanction 27 Iranian airlines, describing the action as part of its “Operation Economic Outcast” campaign. 

The Treasury said the airlines were targeted over their alleged role in supporting Iran’s regime, including the movement of weapons, personnel and illicit cargo.

The Treasury also suspended three aviation-related authorizations that had allowed certain overflights and permitted non-US airlines to operate US-origin or US-controlled commercial aircraft on flights into Iran. The department said requests related to aviation safety would be considered on a case-by-case basis.

The sanctions include some of Iran’s major carriers, including Iran Air Tour, Iran Aseman Airlines, Qeshm Air, Kish Airlines, Sepehran Airlines and Varesh Airlines. 

The Treasury also warned foreign companies providing services to sanctioned Iranian airlines, including aircraft transfers, cargo services and general sales-agent support, that they could face US sanctions.

Read more: US denies visas to Iranian president's media team, AFP says

• Major-General Amir Hatami, Iran's army commander, says the country's forces are ready to face any renewed US or ‘Israeli’ attack.
• Concern is growing across the Middle East that the US may launch new strikes, with the nearly seven-month war stuck in a stalemate.
• Trump says he is in a "deciding mode" and that his options include "wiping it out", economic pressure, or a peace deal.
• Trump says he would be open to meeting Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly this week.

The commander of the Islamic Republic of Iran's army, Major-General Amir Hatami, has said that the country's armed forces are "fully prepared, vigilant, and ready" to confront any fresh attack launched by the United States or ‘Israel’.

Iranian state media quoted Hatami as saying, "We will not hesitate for a moment to defend Iran's independence, security, and territorial integrity." He also pointed out that the military had earlier "defended the country's existence and territorial integrity in the face of enemy's aggression".

His remarks come as anxiety grows across the Middle East that Washington may carry out new military strikes on Iran, with the war, now close to seven months old, stuck in a stalemate.

On Sunday, US President Donald Trump described himself as being in a "deciding mode" on Iran. He said the choices before him include "wiping it out", applying economic pressure, or reaching a peace deal.

Trump added that he would be willing to meet Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian on the margins of this week's United Nations General Assembly in New York City.

Read more: Iran’s acting defense minister says women are vital to defense industry

• IRNA described the denial as an unprecedented hostile action by Washington.

The United States has refused to issue visas to the communications team of Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, ruling them out of this week's trip to the UN General Assembly, according to Iranian state media. 

The reports, which AFP relayed Monday, add a new point of friction to a visit already unfolding under unusual circumstances.

Iran's state broadcaster IRNA described the refusal as an unprecedented hostile action by Washington, saying the denials covered some members of the high-ranking delegation, including the president's media team. 

Press TV, another Iranian outlet, said the move could limit coverage of Pezeshkian's trip. 

The denials came after Washington cleared the top of the delegation. The State Department said it had approved visas for a scaled-down Iranian delegation for the high-level week of the 81st General Assembly, including Pezeshkian and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi. 

According to AP, as relayed by Pajhwok, visas went to Iran's "principal delegation" and essential staff, and officials said the delegation would be smaller than last year's.

Read more: US says Iranian UN officials barred from luxury shopping in New York

• Military authorities confirmed the injuries were minor.
• The ship is reportedly continuing on to its next port of call.

Two crew members were slightly injured Monday after an oil tanker was hit by an unidentified projectile while passing through the Strait of Hormuz, according to the UK Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) agency.

The vessel was making an inbound transit through the strait when the incident occurred. The UKMTO said the ship had been "struck by an unknown projectile," and no further details on the object or where it came from have been released.

Military authorities told the agency that the two injured crew members suffered only minor injuries. The tanker is reported to be continuing its voyage to its next port of call.

In the wake of the incident, the UKMTO urged other ships in the area to exercise caution when transiting the strait. It also asked crews to report any suspicious activity to the agency.

Read more: UKMTO says tanker hit in Strait of Hormuz, sparking a fire

• IRGC spokesperson Hossein Mohebbi says Iran's defensive and counteroffensive operations would change significantly if the US launches a new attack.
• He says the changes would cover both where a conflict is fought and the weapons and equipment used.

A spokesperson for Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has warned Monday that any fresh American attack would prompt a marked change in how Iran responds, both on defense and in counterstrikes.

Hossein Mohebbi made the remarks in an interview with the Alalam news network, saying Iran's military conduct would look considerably different from what has been seen before. He said the changes would be broad, touching on the location of the fighting as well as the arms and equipment involved.

"Those changes include a shift in the geography of war, and a shift in weapons and military equipment," he said. He went on to promise a new generation of hardware: "We will bring new weapons with new capabilities into the battlefield, and the world will be astonished."

Mohebbi did not stop at equipment. He also signaled that Iran's targeting priorities would change, suggesting that Tehran would not simply repeat its earlier choices. "Our targets are also no longer necessarily the same [as the] previous targets. We have new targets that have not yet been struck," he added.

The comments offer no specifics on which weapons, locations or targets he had in mind, and they read largely as a warning aimed at Washington. 

This comes a day after Iran claimed it has received information that Washington has decided to take action against the Islamic Republic, adding that "any mistake will result in painful attacks."

Read more: Ghalibaf says Hormuz will stay closed until Iran’s conditions are met

• Europe is projected to run a jet fuel deficit of 510,000 barrels per day in the fourth quarter, according to Energy Aspects data cited by Reuters.
• The US and Asia Pacific are expected to have surpluses of 18,000 and 419,000 barrels per day, respectively.
• The war has cut off nearly half of Europe's jet fuel imports.
• South Korean exports to Europe have risen to 129,000 barrels per day in September, the highest level since October 2022, but this hasn't closed the gap.

Europe is heading into the final months of the year with a significant jet fuel shortage, as the US-’Israel’ war on Iran continues to disrupt global energy supplies. Reuters reported the projection, drawing on figures from the consultancy Energy Aspects.

The data shows the continent falling 510,000 barrels per day short in the fourth quarter. Other major regions are in a very different position: the United States is expected to finish the period with a small surplus of 18,000 barrels per day, while Asia Pacific is on track for a far larger one of 419,000 barrels per day.

The conflict has severed almost half of the jet fuel Europe normally imports, leaving airlines and fuel suppliers dependent on alternative sources. South Korea has stepped in to help, sharply increasing its shipments to the continent. According to the commodities intelligence firm Kpler, European imports of South Korean jet fuel have reached 129,000 barrels per day so far in September, the highest monthly rate since October 2022.

Even so, the extra volumes from Seoul are not enough to offset the loss of supply from disrupted routes, and the projected fourth-quarter deficit remains large. With war-related disruption still ongoing, the gap between Europe and surplus regions like Asia Pacific looks set to persist.

Read more: Iranian official rejects US claims of fuel shortages as “baseless lies”

• Iranian officials claimed Washington was forced to redeploy the older MQ-1 airframes after heavy losses depleted its active MQ-9 Reaper inventory.

Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) alleged that its Aerospace Force intercepted and destroyed a US MQ-1 unmanned aerial vehicle over the strategic waters of the Strait of Hormuz.

According to an official press release issued by the IRGC Public Relations Office, the aircraft was tracked and brought down by a newly deployed, advanced indigenous air defense system operating under the Islamic Republic's unified integrated air defense network.

"Moments ago, another MQ-1 drone belonging to the US terrorist military was intercepted and destroyed over the skies of the Strait of Hormuz by the advanced air defense fire of the IRGC Aerospace Force," the statement claimed.

Addressing the model of the intercepted aircraft, the IRGC highlighted that the US Air Force and Navy had formally retired the older MQ-1 Predator line several years ago, replacing it with the larger and more capable MQ-9 Reaper.

However, Iranian military officials alleged that the Pentagon has been forced to bring the older MQ-1 platform back into active regional service due to heavy equipment losses.

The IRGC statement claimed that the redeployment of the legacy drones was necessitated by the destruction of a large percentage of the US military's active MQ-9 Reaper inventory over the course of the regional conflict.

• Iran’s GDP plunged 10.1% year-on-year in Q1 of the Persian calendar (late March to late June).
• Official data directly links the drop to ongoing military conflict with the U.S. and Israel that began in late February.
• The contraction exacerbates existing financial crises, including rampant hyperinflation and a collapsing rial under severe sanctions.

Iran’s economy contracted by more than 10 percent during the ongoing Middle East conflict, driven by severe disruptions following the onset of US-'Israeli' military strikes in late February.

According to official statistics released by the Statistical Center of Iran on Sept. 20, the nation’s real gross domestic product (GDP) shrank by 10.1 percent year-on-year from late March to late June.

This period corresponds to the first quarter of the Persian calendar.

The economic downturn reflects the immediate fallout of the conflict, which escalated after initial US-'Israeli' strikes killed the Islamic Republic’s supreme leader alongside senior military officials at the launch of a broader campaign.

Structural economic pressure

In response to the late-February strikes, Tehran retaliated by blocking the Strait of Hormuz, the crucial maritime transit point for global energy exports.

The closure triggered a sharp surge in international oil prices and deepened the economic fallout across the region.

The wartime contraction further compounds long-standing economic turmoil within Iran. Prior to the outbreak of hostilities, the country's economy was already severely burdened by persistent hyperinflation, rapid devaluation of the national currency, and sweeping economic sanctions.

For coverage of the previous day, visit the link below.

Read more: Day 205 | Iran sets conditions for US talks as Houthis target Saudi Arabia