US could face missile shortage in next War: CSIS analysis

• A new CSIS analysis indicates the US military has expended up to 50% of critical missile stockpiles during the war with Iran.
• Experts warn the depletion creates a window of vulnerability in the Pacific, with replacement timelines stretching up to five years.
• While the Pentagon asserts it maintains a deep arsenal, concerns are mounting over the capacity to confront near-peer adversaries.

A recent CSIS analysis reports that The United States military faces a "near-term risk" of running out of critical ammunition in the event of a new conflict, following significant stockpile depletions during the war with Iran.

According to experts and sources familiar with internal Defense Department assessments, the heavy usage of munitions over the last seven weeks has raised serious questions about US readiness for future global contingencies.

CSIS data reveals significant depletion

A new analysis conducted by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) details the extent of the drawdown, with numbers closely aligning with classified Pentagon data.

According to the CSIS data, the US military has expended at least 45% of its stockpile of precision strike missiles, at least half of its inventory of THAAD ballistic missile interceptors, and nearly 50% of its Patriot air defense interceptors.

The analysis further tracks the expenditure of approximately 30% of the US Tomahawk missile stockpile, more than 20% of long-range Joint Air-to-Surface Standoff Missiles (JASSM), and roughly 20% of its SM-3 and SM-6 missiles.

Replacement timelines and global vulnerability

While the US likely retains enough munitions in the short term to sustain combat operations against Iran if the current ceasefire fails, the CSIS report concludes that the remaining inventory is no longer sufficient to confront a near-peer adversary such as China.

Mark Cancian, a retired US Marine Corps Colonel and co-author of the CSIS report, warned that the high expenditure rate has created a "window of increased vulnerability in the western Pacific."

Despite the Pentagon signing a series of contracts earlier this year to expand production capacity, the CSIS analysis estimates it will take one to four years just to replenish the inventories, and several more years to expand them. Deliveries of these key munitions remain relatively low in the near term due to smaller order volumes in the past.

Official responses and mounting concerns

The documented depletion stands in contrast to recent public statements from the administration. Chief Pentagon spokesman Sean Parnell stated that the military "has everything it needs to execute at the time and place of the President’s choosing," emphasizing the possession of a "deep arsenal."

Similarly, President Donald Trump recently claimed the US is not running short on weaponry, though he simultaneously requested additional Pentagon funding for munitions, calling it a "small price to pay to make sure that we stay tippy top."

However, warnings were issued prior to the conflict. Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Dan Caine and other military leaders had cautioned that a protracted campaign could impact US stockpiles.

Lawmakers are also expressing unease. Senator Mark Kelly recently highlighted the logistical challenges of the conflict, calling it a "math problem" when comparing US air defense resupply capabilities against Iran's massive stockpile and production rate of drones and ballistic missiles.