Cuba faces severe oil shortage amid US, Mexico restrictions

• Data shows Cuba has enough oil for just 15–20 days at current consumption and production levels.
• The suspension of Mexican shipments and US blockade on Venezuelan oil heightens the risk of energy crisis and economic collapse.

Cuba faces a looming energy crisis as its oil reserves are estimated to last only 15 to 20 days under current consumption, according to data from the analytics firm Kepler. The shortage comes after Mexico, Cuba’s last remaining oil supplier, canceled a shipment, while the United States continues to block Venezuelan deliveries.

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Severe supply disruptions

Financial Times reports that Cuba received only a single shipment of 84,900 barrels from Mexico on January 9, averaging just over 3,000 barrels per day, far below the 37,000 barrels daily it received from all suppliers in 2025. Kepler analyst Victoria Grabienfoger noted that the January shipment, combined with around 460,000 barrels in storage at the start of the year, leaves the country with only a 15–20 day supply.

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President Donald Trump pledged to reduce oil supplies to Cuba, stating days after the last Mexican shipment that the Cuban regime is "on the verge of collapse."

Widespread impact and risk of collapse

The disruption has compounded existing hardships: much of Cuba already experiences near-daily electricity outages, while its struggling economy, hit by declining tourism and sugar production, faces the risk of total collapse if oil imports do not resume.

Experts warn that Cuba’s reliance on a limited number of suppliers makes it extremely vulnerable. After Venezuela halted exports following the US-led detention of President Nicolás Maduro on January 3, only Mexico remained as a potential source, but Mexican deliveries have now stopped under US pressure.

Additional oil supplies from Russia and Algeria, historically part of Cuba’s imports, have been inconsistent. The last Russian shipment arrived in October 2025, while Algeria’s last delivery was in February 2025.

Outlook

Energy analysts emphasize that without prompt resumption of imports, Cuba may be forced into strict oil rationing, further straining daily life and economic activity across the island.