Exiled Assad allies seek to rebuild power from Moscow

•  Exiled Assad-era powerbrokers seek to rebuild armed networks from Moscow without Russian backing.
• Internal rivalries and state countermeasures limit the prospects of a renewed insurgency.

Two former close allies of ousted Syrian President Bashar al-Assad are attempting to rebuild their influence from exile in Moscow, funding tens of thousands of fighters and seeking control over key military and strategic infrastructure inside Syria, according to a Reuters investigation.

Key figures behind the effort

The operation is led by Major General Kamel Hassan, the former head of military intelligence, and Assad’s billionaire cousin Rami Makhlouf.

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Both men fled Syria after the collapse of Assad’s government in December 2024. They now operate primarily from Moscow and Lebanon.

Reuters reviewed internal documents showing the pair are attempting to form militias in Syria’s coastal regions and in parts of Lebanon, recruiting largely from the Alawite community.

The documents claim the network could mobilize more than 54,000 fighters, including about 18,000 officers, organized into eighty battalions across Homs, Hama, Tartus, and Latakia.

Financing militias from exile

Makhlouf, once the dominant force behind Syria’s business empire, is financing the effort with millions of dollars.

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Payroll records reviewed by Reuters show he spent at least six million dollars on fighters’ salaries. Individual payments were modest, often between $20 and $30 per month.

Hassan has spent about one point five million dollars since March 2025 to support roughly 12,000 fighters in Syria and Lebanon.

Both men aim to regain control over 14 underground command centers along the Syrian coast, equipped with weapons caches, solar power systems, communications gear, and detailed maps. The facilities remain in place but are largely inactive under government control.

Maher al-Assad’s shadow role

The investigation identifies Bashar al-Assad’s younger brother, Maher al-Assad, as a potential power broker.

Maher has not yet provided funding or issued direct orders, but Reuters sources say he retains loyalty among thousands of former soldiers from the elite Fourth Armored Division and continues to influence segments of the Alawite community.

Religious messaging and ideology

Makhlouf has infused his outreach with religious language, presenting himself as a divinely guided protector.

Reuters found that he invokes Shia end-times prophecies, including references to an apocalyptic battle in Damascus, framing political and military ambitions as acts of divine will.

Cyber operations target Damascus

Hassan has also assembled a cyber unit of about thirty former intelligence operatives.

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The group has focused on hacking the new Syrian government, planting spyware, and selling stolen datasets on the dark web, signaling a strategy that combines armed mobilization with digital warfare, according to Reuters.

Failed uprising hardens government stance

The new Syrian government, led by Ahmad Al-Sharaa, has reportedly relied on Khaled Al-Ahmad, a former Assad loyalist who defected, to counter the threat.

In March 2025, an attempted uprising by independent Alawite units in Latakia collapsed after days of fighting, leaving about one thousand five hundred people dead. The failure strengthened government resolve and exposed the fragility of the exiled networks.

Infighting weakens exiled leaders

Reuters details deep internal rifts among Assad’s former inner circle.

Makhlouf has publicly attacked relatives and former allies, while Hassan faces competing loyalties among ex-officers. These disputes have slowed recruitment and undercut coordination, reducing the likelihood of a unified campaign.

Russia withholds support

Although both men are based in Moscow, Reuters sources say Russia has refused to offer direct backing.

The Kremlin has focused on preserving access to its military bases on Syria’s coast. Meetings with Russian officials have remained informal, with no political or military endorsement.

Limited capacity, rising risks

As of late 2025, neither Hassan nor Makhlouf has launched active operations.

Government forces continue to monitor underground facilities and financial networks, with arrests reported along the coast. Analysts warn that any successful mobilization could reignite sectarian violence, but say the exiled figures currently lack the capacity to pose an immediate threat.

The Reuters investigation is based on interviews with 48 people with direct knowledge of the plans, including military officers, financial managers, and community leaders, as well as internal communications, payroll records, and operational documents. All sources requested anonymity due to security concerns.