Gaza deaths may total 77k to 109k, study reveals undercount

New research reported by The Economist has cast serious doubt on the official death toll in Gaza, suggesting that the true number of fatalities could be far higher than the figures currently reported by local authorities.

Since 'Israel’s' genocide on Gaza began in October 2023, the death toll has been a point of intense scrutiny and debate. As of May 8, the Palestinian Ministry of Health, which is run by Hamas, reported that 52,760 people had died.

This figure, while already staggering, may underestimate the true human cost of the conflict.

A recent study published in The Lancet and analyzed by The Economist offers a troubling reassessment.

Researchers examined three separate lists of the dead: one from hospitals, another based on a public online survey, and a third assembled from obituary posts on social media. All three lists included names, and in many cases, age, sex, and ID numbers.

Rather than relying on the ministry’s official total, the researchers studied the overlap—or lack thereof—between the three lists to estimate how many people may have actually died. The results were startling: the low level of overlap between the lists suggests the real death toll could be between 46 percent and 107 percent higher than the official figure.

If the same undercounting patterns have held since June 30, 2024, this would imply that between 77,000 and 109,000 people may have been killed—representing up to 5 percent of Gaza’s pre-war population.

Experts caution that a precise tally remains elusive. Many institutions involved in documenting deaths—hospitals, government offices, and media—have been destroyed in the war. Some names were later removed from official lists, and militants may be underrepresented in the records, either because of battlefield conditions or political motives.

Compounding the problem is the high number of unrecorded deaths from preventable causes, such as lack of medical care due to the collapse of Gaza’s health infrastructure.

As the war continues, the death toll remains contested, but emerging evidence points to a far grimmer reality than officially acknowledged, according to the report.