When will US presidential election results be announced?
As election season approaches, Americans are once again bracing for the drama of election night, a time when tensions run high and the nation watches intently to see which candidate will emerge victorious.
But a lingering question remains: when will we know who has won?
Historically, election nights have often seen long stretches of uncertainty.
The 2000 election between George W. Bush and Al Gore is a prime example, when millions of Americans waited for 36 days for the results, captivated by the unfolding narrative surrounding Florida's votes. This pivotal moment not only introduced the concept of "red states" and "blue states" but also showcased the complexities of the electoral process.
Fast forward to the present, and we find ourselves in a similar situation, with Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump virtually neck-and-neck in the polls, heightening the likelihood that a handful of swing states will determine the outcome.
The timeline for announcing the winner largely depends on how close the race turns out to be. Four key swing states—Arizona, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin—have absentee ballot procedures that can take days to finalize.
If Harris secures decisive victories in the other swing states, a winner could potentially be announced on election night. However, if the margins are razor-thin or if any states require recounts, the announcement could be delayed significantly.
Understanding how news organizations announce winners is crucial. These media outlets do not have the power to officially declare a winner; that responsibility lies with election officials who count and certify the votes.
News organizations, including the Associated Press (AP), have established rigorous standards for when they feel confident enough to call a race.
According to David Scott, head of news strategy and operations at the AP, “Our standard is absolute certainty. We don’t declare a winner until we are 100 percent confident that the trailing candidates can’t catch up.”
On election night, a dedicated "decision desk" at major news organizations works tirelessly to analyze incoming data and projections. Utilizing sophisticated models, these teams project how the vote count will unfold in real time. The caution shown by news outlets has increased over the years, especially after the early calls that backfired during the 2000 election.
When considering the 2020 election, the winner was not announced until November 7, four days after the polls closed, when Biden crossed the necessary electoral threshold following media calls for pivotal states like Pennsylvania and Nevada. The delay in declaring a winner stemmed from a mix of mail-in ballots and close races, illustrating how complicated and drawn-out the process can be.
This time around, we might expect results to be announced faster than in 2020, particularly if the margins in swing states are larger than 0.5 percent. Many states have also implemented changes to speed up the counting of mail-in ballots. However, if races are as close as they were in some areas in 2020, we could find ourselves waiting for days, or even weeks, before a winner is officially declared.
The process of determining the winner becomes even more complex with legal challenges and recounts. States like Pennsylvania have restrictions that prevent counting mail-in ballots before Election Day, which can significantly delay results. Furthermore, if a state is embroiled in disputes over which ballots should be counted, that could further prolong the announcement of a winner.
As election night unfolds, we can anticipate that results will come in from states with clear advantages for one candidate or the other, potentially allowing for some early calls. Yet, for swing states with tight races, the final verdict may remain elusive for an extended period.
