Battleground state voters split between Trump, Harris in tight race

A new poll by The Wall Street Journal reveals that voters in seven key battleground states are divided almost evenly between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris, with no clear frontrunner emerging just weeks before the election.

According to the survey, voters consider Trump better suited to handle crucial issues like the economy and border security, but they remain split over who should lead the nation. Harris holds narrow leads in Arizona, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Georgia, while Trump has slight advantages in Nevada, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania. However, none of these leads exceed the poll’s margin of error, except in Nevada, where Trump is ahead by 5 points.

Overall, Trump garners 46% support across the 4,200 swing-state voters surveyed, with Harris close behind at 45%. The race remains too close to call in these pivotal states, which will likely decide the outcome of the presidential election. As noted by The Wall Street Journal, if Harris secures the states where she currently holds a slim lead, she could win a majority in the Electoral College.

Voters Sticking to Party Lines

The survey indicates that both candidates are retaining the vast majority of support from their respective parties, with 93% of Republicans backing Trump and 93% of Democrats supporting Harris. Independent voters are almost evenly split, with 40% siding with Harris and 39% with Trump.

David Lee, a Republican pollster who worked on the survey, emphasized how close the race remains. “This thing is a dead heat and is going to come down to the wire. These last three weeks matter.”

Democratic pollster Michael Bocian echoed the sentiment, stating, “It’s an even-steven, tight, tight race.”

Economic Views Favor Trump, But Harris Gains in Key Areas

The poll shows Trump with a 10-point lead over Harris on handling the economy, the top issue cited by voters. He also has a 16-point advantage on immigration and border security, another major concern. Yet despite these leads, the race remains neck and neck, with Harris gaining ground on other issues like healthcare and housing affordability.

Additionally, the poll found that 6 points more voters believe Harris "cares about people like you" compared to Trump, while the two are tied on standing up for American workers.

Harris's clearest advantage comes on the issue of abortion, where voters favor her by 16 points over Trump. Sixty-one percent of voters expressed support for keeping abortion legal in most cases, a potential boost for Harris in key states.

Third-Party Candidates and the Tight Race

The poll also suggests that the collapse of third-party support, which had been as high as 20% in some states earlier in the year, has helped bring the race to a near-tie.

However, Trump faces challenges in some areas. For instance, in Arizona, where Harris holds a 2-point lead, Trump is retaining only 88% of Republicans, with 8% defecting to Harris. This likely reflects lingering opposition from Republicans who align with the late Arizona Senator John McCain, a known Trump critic.

As the race continues to tighten, both campaigns will focus on a small percentage of undecided voters, who could ultimately decide the election.