DoS report reveals significant demographic changes in Jordan

The Department of Statistics announced that the population of Jordan reached approximately 11,630.323 million as of Thursday, July 11, 2024.

This places Jordan 11th among Arab countries and 86th globally in terms of population size.

Jordan has experienced significant demographic changes in the second half of the last century, with the population increasing from around 586,000 in 1952 to 11,516 million by the end of 2023. 

The population is expected to reach approximately 11,956 million by the end of 2025, with an annual growth rate of 1.9 percent, meaning the population will double in about 37 years.

Results from the 2015 census showed that children (under 15 years) constitute 34.3 percent of the total population, while those aged 15-64, who form the labor force, make up 62 percent.

The elderly (65 years and older) represent 3.7 percent, with a demographic dependency ratio of 61.4 in 2023. The average household size decreased from 5.4 members in 2004 to 4.8 members in 2015.

Infant mortality rates have significantly declined from 122 per 1,000 live births in the 1952-1955 period to 14 per 1,000 live births in 2023. Total fertility rates have also decreased due to socio-economic and health changes, dropping from 5.6 children per woman of reproductive age (15-49 years) in 1990 to 2.6 children in 2023.

The main factor in the increased age of first marriage for females, which was 27.5 years in 2022, is attributed to changes in reproductive patterns in this age group, with more females pursuing education and economic participation.

According to the Department of Statistics, economic and social factors have significantly contributed to the decline in fertility levels, with an increasing percentage of Jordanian females obtaining higher education.

Demographic changes in Jordan indicate a continued decrease in the proportion of young people (under 15 years) and an increase in the working-age population (15-64 years), with a slow rise in the proportion of the elderly (65 years and older). 

This points to a continued decline in the demographic dependency ratio in the coming years, enhancing Jordan's potential to achieve a demographic dividend by 2030, leading to positive social and economic improvements.

It is projected that the demographic dividend in Jordan will peak in 2040, with the demographic dependency ratio expected to reach 47.7 per 100 individuals in the 15-64 age group.

The demographic dividend is "the economic growth potential that can result from shifts in a population’s age structure, mainly when the share of the working-age population is larger than the non-working-age share of the population" – according to a United Nations’ definition.