Who will form 'Israel’s' next government after a tight election?

• Opinion polls projected a close race between Gadi Eisenkot’s opposition bloc and Benjamin Netanyahu’s right-wing allies, with neither side securing a clear majority.
• Arab parties were projected to win 18–19 Knesset seats, potentially giving them a significant role in government formation.

Since its establishment in 1948, 'Israel' has been governed by successive coalitions. But following the latest general election, a central question remains: will Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu remain in power?

Opinion polls showed no clear winner in the country’s first general election since the October 7, 2023, attacks led by Hamas.

Polls conducted by two 'Israeli' media outlets projected that the Yashar party, led by former military chief Gadi Eisenkot, and three other Jewish opposition parties grouped under the “Change Bloc” would win a combined 51 seats in the 120-member Knesset.

Netanyahu’s Likud party and its allies among far-right and ultra-Orthodox parties were also projected to secure 51 seats. A third poll suggested Netanyahu’s bloc could hold a three-seat advantage.

The two Arab parties were expected to win a combined 18–19 seats, potentially giving them significant influence over the government-formation process.

Voter turnout on October 27 reached its highest level in decades, adding to the significance of the election.

The Knesset, 'Israel’s' parliament, has 120 seats. Any government needs the support of at least 61 lawmakers to secure a parliamentary majority.

'Israel' uses a proportional representation system, meaning seats are allocated to parties according to their share of the vote. As a result, governments have historically relied on coalitions of multiple parties rather than a single party winning an outright majority.

If neither major bloc secures enough seats to form a government, coalition negotiations will determine which candidate can assemble a parliamentary majority.

Smaller parties could play a decisive role in those negotiations, particularly if the two main blocs remain closely matched.

The final outcome will depend on the official distribution of seats and the ability of political leaders to secure the support needed to form a government.