US intelligence says Iran more “confident” after six months of war: report

US intelligence assessments indicate that after six months of intermittent conflict with the United States, Iran has emerged more confident in its military capabilities and more aware of the limits of American power.

Iran has grown more assured in its ability to strike targets across the Middle East and appears determined to prolong the fighting for months to frustrate Washington, recent US intelligence reports conclude, according to a report by The New York Times.

The assessments largely mirror events on the ground, where fighting has resumed after a period of relative calm.

In the past week alone, Iran targeted ships in the Strait of Hormuz and American troops in the region, while US forces conducted strikes inside Iran that killed both military personnel and civilians.

Though these exchanges have remained limited so far, officials briefed on the reports say to NYT that Iran’s hard-line government may be contemplating a significant escalation.

Iran has come through the on-again, off-again war with a clearer grasp of its military strengths and greater certainty about what it can achieve, according to officials familiar with the intelligence.

The reports suggest any comprehensive agreement to end the conflict will be difficult to reach.

There are few indications Tehran is prepared to strike a deal with the United States; instead, Iranian leaders appear content to heighten President Donald Trump’s political difficulties ahead of the US midterm elections.

“Iranians are feeling pretty bullish about their position,” said Rep. Jason Crow, a Colorado Democrat who sits on the House Intelligence Committee.

“They have taken substantial damage, but that has always been built into their system. They understand they can take damage, and they are playing a much longer game here.”

Crow noted that Iran’s once-fragmented leadership is now more unified, internal opposition has been quieted, and the country retains stockpiles of missiles and drones.

Its leaders also have a sharper understanding of how to leverage control over the Strait of Hormuz, which previously carried about one-fifth of the world’s oil.

“They have always known the strait was a big bargaining chip, but have come to realize to a greater degree the leverage that gives them,” Crow said.

Others briefed on the assessments said Iran likely believes the US military will struggle to mount major new strikes as its munitions stockpiles dwindle.
Officials see signs that Tehran intends to stretch the conflict at least until the midterms, calculating that the war and the high gasoline prices caused by disruption of the strait are politically damaging to Trump and Republicans.

“The Iranians think they have maximum leverage,” said Rep. Josh Gottheimer, a New Jersey Democrat also on the Intelligence Committee.

“So, from their perspective, why not keep sticking it to the president?”

Trump is not currently pursuing negotiations and has expressed confidence that economic pressure can compel Tehran to ease its grip on the strait and eventually make concessions on its nuclear program.

In the near term, however, US sanctions are expected to prompt further escalation, according to officials who have reviewed the intelligence.

Iran-linked hackers are also assessed as the likely perpetrators of cyberattacks on more than 100 US water systems in late July; while no systems were compromised to the point of making water unsafe, the incidents caused disruptions requiring manual overrides and boil-water advisories.

Vice President JD Vance sought to play down the cyber threat at a recent briefing, saying Iran’s ability to disrupt ordinary American life “is quite limited” though “not zero,” and that other actors pose greater concerns.

Cybersecurity specialists note that such attacks remain an attractive tool for Iran to erode public support for an already unpopular war.

“Even if such attacks fail to meaningfully unsettle the American public, they can still play into a broader effort to exhaust domestic patience with this administration’s handling of the conflict,” said Alex Orleans, a former US government cybersecurity contractor who tracks Iranian hacking groups.

Trump had predicted a swift, decisive victory when US and ‘Israeli’ forces launched the campaign on February 28; critics now argue the administration badly underestimated Iran’s resilience.