Day 162 | Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Pakistan sign defence pact amid regional war

Iran has received hundreds of Chinese and Russian shoulder-fired surface-to-air missiles in recent weeks as it works to rebuild air defenses heavily damaged in its conflict with the United States and ‘Israel’, according to Iranian opposition leaders who spoke to the US-funded Arabic-speaking outlet Alhurra.

The opposition figures, from Kurdish and Ahwazi Arab groups, said the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps acquired three types of man-portable air defense systems (MANPADS).

These were distributed to military sites, urban centers, and border regions across Iran, with some transferred to allied armed groups in Iraq.

Hamid Motashar, head of the Ahwazi Liberal Party, said Iran received about 400 launchers of the Chinese QW-12 and FN-16 systems, along with ammunition and spare parts, in four air shipments from Urumqi in northwestern China via Pakistani airspace.

He stated the IRGC Aerospace Force deployed the systems in interior regions, including Ahvaz, to protect command centers and military installations.

Motashar also claimed Iranian forces used one of the Chinese systems to shoot down a US-made Lucas drone near Bandar Abbas on July 13.

Separately, three Kurdish opposition leaders reported that Iran received about 300 Russian-made 9K333 Verba MANPADS, with their missiles, in five small shipments delivered across the Caspian Sea.

These systems were deployed near military bases and sensitive facilities in Tehran, Kermanshah, Isfahan, Mashhad, the border with Iraq’s Kurdistan Region, and Iranian ports overlooking the Strait of Hormuz.

Negotiations for the Chinese systems reportedly began during Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi’s visit to Beijing in May, accompanied by IRGC and Aerospace Force officials, with the deal signed in mid-June.

Tehran has sought to restore its air defenses since May after ‘Israeli’ Chief of Staff Eyal Zamir said in early March that ‘Israeli’ forces had destroyed about 80 percent of Iran’s air defense systems.

Earlier reporting by Reuters in late July indicated Iran was expected to receive up to 400 Chinese QW-12 and FN-16 MANPADS under a $60-70 million deal via a Hong Kong intermediary, with initial deliveries planned from Urumqi through Pakistan.

China dismissed that report as groundless, and Pakistan denied involvement.

Analyst Farzin Karbasi said Tehran is using ceasefire periods to repair sites and expand defenses with Chinese and Russian support, while also modifying drones with jet engines.

Footage released by Mehr News Agency, showing what they say are US drones and fighter jets destroyed by the IRGC aerospace force.

Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff of the US military General Dan Caine has privately told senior Trump administration officials that the United States needs to find an exit from the ongoing war with Iran, warning that further escalation risks backfiring and that airpower alone is unlikely to achieve the president’s goals, according to three sources cited by CNN.

“Caine is looking for an off ramp,” one of the sources said bluntly.

The general has shared his concerns about limited military options with key figures including Vice President JD Vance, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, and CIA Director John Ratcliffe in recent weeks, aiming to coordinate messaging ahead of meetings with President Donald Trump.

Nearly six months into the conflict that began in late February 2026 with US and ‘Israeli’ strikes intended to prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon, Caine and other officials view the war as having reached a crossroads.

Trump has repeatedly signaled a preference for air campaigns over ground troops, but sources say Caine and allies privately doubt bombing will force Tehran into a favorable deal.

Caine has carefully raised potential downsides of escalation—including depleted US munitions stockpiles—while assuring Trump that forces could still “absolutely wreck them” if ordered to proceed.

One source described the approach as the general “protecting the military.” A White House official called Caine “an incredible asset” who provides accurate options, while his spokesperson declined to comment on confidential talks or anonymous characterizations.

Recent plans for more aggressive strikes were scaled back after concerns from Caine, Gulf allies worried about Iranian retaliation on energy infrastructure, and shortages of key munitions.

Trump has canceled or paused operations multiple times, most recently citing ally requests and claims of possible talks, though Iran has denied negotiations.

Publicly, Caine has stated that “airpower has its limits.”

Privately, he has been more direct that continued bombing of missile sites, energy targets, or infrastructure is unlikely to produce lasting results and could further alienate Iranians or strain US readiness for other threats.

No tankers have loaded crude at Kharg Island, Iran’s primary oil export terminal, for at least a week, according to recent shipping and satellite data, indicating that a renewed US naval blockade has effectively stopped Tehran’s crude sales.

The Financial Times reported the development on Friday, citing analysis from ship-tracking firms and maritime intelligence providers.

Operations at the island, which handles nearly 90 percent of Iran’s crude exports, halted on July 31, data from Kpler and Energy Aspects show.

Satellite imagery analyzed by Windward confirmed that all three loading berths had remained empty for an extended period.

On Tuesday, only 16 vessels were anchored nearby—the lowest number recorded since early last month.

The United States reimposed the naval blockade on Iranian ports in mid-July after an interim deal, mediated by Pakistan, to reopen the Strait of Hormuz collapsed.

The standstill marks one of the longest interruptions at Kharg since the broader conflict began earlier in 2026, during which Iran had continued loading tankers even amid hostilities.

“The blockade is effective, in the sense that there isn’t much tanker traffic going in or out,” said Richard Bronze, head of geopolitics at Energy Aspects.

He noted, however, that the revenue loss is unlikely to force rapid concessions from Tehran. “It’s pretty clear that the Iranians feel they have the upper hand when it comes to Hormuz, and they are willing to absorb a great deal of economic pain to exploit their advantage.”

United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) reported that it has identified no tanker loaded with Iranian crude that successfully left the Gulf since July 12.

Iran is still collecting payments from earlier cargoes that departed during a prior ceasefire period and are now arriving near Malaysia for ship-to-ship transfers destined mainly for Chinese refineries.

Twenty-six Iranian-flagged tankers have recently reached those waters, according to the group.

Bronze observed that Tehran may even gain from higher oil prices on those remaining barrels in the short term, but warned that this revenue stream is finite.

“The sand is running out of the hourglass in terms of how long this will continue generating revenue,” he said.

The blockade is also preventing empty tankers from returning to Iranian waters after unloading in Asia, further constraining future loadings.

Storage tanks at Kharg have not filled significantly, Energy Aspects noted, suggesting Iran may already be reducing production at its fields to avoid overflowing capacity.

Brent crude traded just under $82 a barrel on Friday as markets awaited any breakthrough on Hormuz transit.

Iranian and Omani officials have discussed a possible new shipping route, but no concrete progress has materialized, and any viable deal could prompt the US to lift the blockade.

An ‘Israeli’ military bulldozer overturned in the eastern Zawtar area of southern Lebanon while destroying buildings and agricultural land.

‘Israeli’ army releases footage of what it says are large-scale exercises in the Mediterranean and the Red Sea by missile ships, submarines, among other vessels, and the operational headquarters of the navy.

For coverage of the previous day, visit the link below.

Read more: Day 161 | Iran threatened to “black out” Gulf if US hit power plants