Friendly match between Switzerland and Jordan ahead of the 2026 FIFA World Cup at the Kybunpark stadium, in St. Gallen. (May 31, 2026)
Famous World Cup predictor give Jordan 17% chance of advancing from group stage
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Joachim Klement, a German research analyst and strategist at Panmure Liberum, has gained international attention for developing an econometric model that has accurately predicted the winners of the last three FIFA World Cups: Germany in 2014, France in 2018, and Argentina in 2022.
How it works
Klement's approach draws on research from the University of Nottingham, which finds that socioeconomic and climatic variables are meaningful predictors of football games. The model uses 3 main points alongside the FIFA ranking and hosting country.
The first variable used is GDP per capita, the reason being that richer nations tend to have better training infrastructure, allowing them to retain young talent, alongside population size, which can provide a larger pool of talent.
Temperature plays a role as well. The mode states that 14 degrees Celsius is optimal, which helps explain why Southern Europe and South American countries have dominated the winners list.
The model explains around 55% of the variation in World Cup success, with the remaining 45% set as luck, which is deliberately built into the simulation.
World Cup probabilities
Despite its success, Klement has described the predictions as originating from a lighthearted exercise and cautions against over-reliance on the forecasts.
For the 2026 FIFA World Cup, hosted across North America, Klement's latest analysis projects the Netherlands as the eventual champion, defeating Portugal in the final. However, current betting markets put the Netherlands' chance of winning at just 3%
His group-stage projections, detailed in an April report, provide specific probabilities for advancement.
Jordan, making its debut in the World Cup finals after qualifying in 2025, has been placed in Group J alongside Argentina, Algeria, and Austria.
Klement's model estimates Argentina as the strong favorite to top the group with a 91% chance of finishing in the top two.
Austria follows with a 52% probability of securing second place.
Algeria is assigned a 40% chance, while Jordan receives a 17% likelihood of advancing among the top two teams in the group.
Currently ranked 63rd in the FIFA men's world rankings as of April 2026, Jordan faces a formidable challenge in its historic first appearance.
The team will open against Austria on June 17, 2026, followed by matches against Algeria and Argentina on June 23 and June 28.
