Taiwan war could trigger nuclear escalation, IISS warns

• IISS warns Taiwan war could turn nuclear
• US, China may target key command systems
• Asia-Pacific seen as center of new arms race
• China rapidly expanding nuclear arsenal

A military conflict between the United States and China over Taiwan would risk a rapid nuclear escalation, as both armed forces would likely launch vast operations targeting rival command and communications hubs, a leading defense research center warned on Thursday.

In a stark strategic assessment released ahead of Asia’s premier annual defense summit in Singapore this weekend, the London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) declared that the world is now on the cusp of a new nuclear arms race "with the Asia-Pacific at its core."

"Regional states and those with strategic interests are expanding their nuclear arsenals, while non-nuclear weapons states pursue long-range conventional-strike capabilities: both challenging strategic stability," the IISS document stated.

Lack of 'Guard Rails'

The 156-page IISS assessment closely examines evolving regional military doctrines and maps out how a potential superpower clash over Taiwan might play out.

While US and Chinese forces possess fundamentally different objectives -Beijing seeking to keep the US and its allies at bay while Washington maneuvers to bolster Taiwan's resilience- both sides are expected to launch massive operations across multiple military domains.

The study highlights a perilous lack of communication and mutual understanding regarding the boundaries of conventional warfare.

"There is currently little public evidence to suggest that both militaries understand the necessary guard rails to prevent, or rules of engagement that would restrict, both sides potentially targeting each other's key command, control, communications, computers, intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance nodes." According to the IISS Strategic Assessment.

Because Taiwan holds ultimate strategic importance to Beijing, the document concludes that the prospect of nuclear escalation will "continue to loom large" because the destruction of these communications nodes could inadvertently trigger an atomic response.

Evolving Nuclear Balance

Though the nuclear stockpiles of the United States and Russia still vastly dwarf China's current inventory, arms control analysts and US officials emphasize that Beijing is accelerating its atomic program at an unprecedented pace.

According to a Pentagon report released in December, China is on track to field 1,000 operational nuclear warheads by the year 2030.

Data compiled by the Federation of American Scientists highlights the current global disparity in active warheads:

• Russia 4,400
• United States 3,700
• China 620

Shifting Diplomatic Tensions

The timing of the report adds weight to the IISS' Shangri-La Dialogue, an informal defense conference running from May 29 to 31 in Singapore.

The event routinely draws an eclectic mix of defense ministers, military generals, intelligence chiefs, diplomats, and weapons manufacturers.

The cross-strait issue, alongside the ongoing conflict in Iran and growing regional uncertainties regarding US security commitments, is expected to dominate the conference floor.

The meeting follows a high-profile summit between Chinese President Xi Jinping and US President Donald Trump in Beijing earlier this month, which sparked noticeable concern in Taipei regarding Washington's long-term commitment to defending the democratically ruled island.

While Beijing maintains that it would prefer a "peaceful reunification," it has never ruled out the use of military force to absorb Taiwan. Taiwan's government firmly rejects Beijing's sovereignty claims.

Following the Trump-Xi summit, China has actively ramped up pressure by increasing its military presence around the island, keeping Taipei's forces on high alert for sudden maneuvers.

US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth is scheduled to address the Singapore conference on Saturday. China has yet to officially confirm whether its own Defense Minister, Dong Jun, will attend the dialogue to face his American counterpart.