US plans to indict Raúl Castro, Cubans fear military force

• US Department of Justice plans to indict 94-year-old revolutionary icon Raúl Castro.
• Indict relies on the 1996 downing of humanitarian planes.
• Experts warn the move creates an alleged pretext for a military operation, just like Venezuela's Maduro.
• Foreign Minister Bruno Rodríguez dismissed US threats during a BRICS meeting.
• Citizens in Havana vowed to defend the island "with sticks and rocks."

Tensions on the island of Cuba surged on Friday following reports that the US Department of Justice plans to indict former leader Raúl Castro over the downing of two humanitarian planes three decades ago.

The threat of prosecution against the 94-year-old revolutionary icon marks a severe escalation in the Trump administration's pressure campaign, further rattling a nation already struggling with a de facto fuel blockade and its worst economic crisis in decades.

The potential indictment ties back to the 1996 shootdown of two aircraft operated by the Miami-based exile group Brothers to the Rescue.

While the Cuban government has yet to issue an official domestic statement on the legal threat, Foreign Minister Bruno Rodríguez expressed defiance during a meeting of BRICS foreign ministers on Friday, stating, "Despite the embargo, sanctions, and threats of the use of force, Cuba continues on a path of sovereignty towards its socialist development."

Pretext for military intervention

The move has raised immediate alarms among foreign policy analysts who believe Washington is laying the groundwork for direct action.

The Trump administration has openly besieged Cuba since January, implementing strict fuel blockades and ramping up sanctions that have forced major foreign corporations, including Canadian miner Sherritt International, to flee the island.

The strategy mirrors the administration's actions in Venezuela earlier this year. In January, U.S. forces launched a military raid to capture Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro, later classifying the cross-border incursion as a "law enforcement operation" to bring him to New York on criminal charges.

US President Trump has since repeatedly warned that Cuba "is next."

Peter Kornbluh, an author and historian specializing in US–Cuba relations, described the pending indictment as a watershed moment that likely signals "the diplomatic endpoint" to any future negotiations.

"This was an ultimatum: It’s do or die time," Kornbluh said. "The indictment has created a fig leaf of legality for any military operations to seize or assassinate Raúl Castro."

Residents vow resistance

On the streets of Havana, the news has sparked a mix of anxiety and intense nationalist fervor. For many Cubans, an attack on the younger Castro brother -who oversaw the country's military for decades and served as president from 2008 to 2018- is viewed as a direct assault on Cuban sovereignty.

"Cubans must always keep moving forward," said Sonia Torres, a 59-year-old schoolteacher interviewed in the capital. "If they try to process Raúl, we’ll defend Cuba with sticks and rocks if we have to."

Though Raúl Castro no longer holds a formal government role, he remains the island's most influential living figure and a primary symbol of the 1959 revolution.

As the island braces for potential escalation, analysts warn that using criminal indictments to justify regional regime change has pushed the decades-long Cold War animosity into dangerous, uncharted territory.