Day 78 | ‘Israel’ on alert for possible Iran escalation as Lebanon ceasefire extended 45 days

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Read more: Day 79 | Iran to soon unveil Strait of Hormuz toll framework

US President Donald Trump hinted at possible military escalation against Iran, as the two sides remain deadlocked in negotiations after more than a month of a halt in hostilities. 

Trump posted what appears to be an AI-generated image of himself aboard a US navy ship with a small Iranian boat in the background; with the caption “It was the calm before the storm”. 

The US Justice Department has arrested and charged an Iraqi national and commander of an Iran-backed Iraqi armed group with involvement in at least 18 alleged attacks and attempted attacks across the US, Canada and Europe.

A complaint unsealed on Friday in Manhattan federal court alleges that Mohammad Baqer Saad Dawood al-Saadi, 32, is a senior figure in Kataib Hezbollah, which is linked to Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).

FBI Director Kash Patel said on X that his agency had arrested and returned al-Saadi to the US, calling him a “high-value target responsible for mass global terrorism”.

Al-Saadi appeared on Friday at the Manhattan court where he was charged with six counts, including conspiracy to provide material support to “terrorist groups” Kataib Hezbollah and the IRGC.

He was also charged with conspiring and providing material support for “acts of terrorism” and conspiring to bomb a place of public use.

According to US court filings, al-Saadi and unidentified associates planned, coordinated and claimed responsibility for at least 18 attacks in Europe, and two in Canada.

Those attacks “appear to have been carried out both in retaliation for the United States and Israel’s recent military actions against Iran and to compel the United States and Israel to halt those actions”, the criminal complaint states.

Al-Saadi’s defence lawyer, Andrew Dalack, stated that his client was taken into custody in Turkiye before being transferred to US custody.

China’s UN ambassador to the United Nations has criticised a proposed US-Bahraini resolution at the UN Security Council on the Strait of Hormuz, saying the content and timing were not right and that passing such a resolution would not be helpful.

The draft resolution demands ⁠Iran halt attacks and mining in the strait, but diplomats have said it is likely to meet with Russian and Chinese vetoes if it comes ⁠to a vote.

Both countries vetoed a similar US-backed resolution last month, arguing it was biased against Iran.

The PassBlue news portal, which focuses on UN news, posted a short clip of an impromptu interview with China’s UN envoy Fu Cong in ‌which he said, when asked about the resolution: “We don’t think the content is right, and the timing is not right.”

“What we need is to urge both sides to engage in serious and good-faith negotiations that can resolve the issue,” Fu said.

“So passing a resolution at this stage, we don’t think is going to be helpful,” he added.

Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson, Esmaeil Baghaei, has cited a passage from the Martinican poet and political thinker Aime Cesaire’s seminal anti-colonial text Discourse on Colonialism in what appears to be a rebuke of the US as “a decadent civilisation”.

Cesaire, who was one of the foundational voices of the “Negritude” movement, wrote Discourse on Colonialism in 1950 as a deep critique of European imperialism and the moral contradictions embedded in colonial “civilisation”.

A civilization that proves incapable of solving the problems it creates is a decadent civilization;

A civilization that chooses to close its eyes to its most crucial problems is a sick civilization;

A civilization that plays fast and loose with its principles is a dying…

— Esmaeil Baqaei (@IRIMFA_SPOX) May 15, 2026

Iranian Tasnim news agency has published what is said to be the last handwritten note penned by the Chief of Staff of the Iranian Armed Forces, Lieutenant General Abdolrahim Mousavi, shortly before his death when US and Israeli forces launched their war on February 28.

The poignant message reflects on the fleeting nature of material possessions:

“The world is a bad thing, because even if you acquire all of it, you have acquired nothing. But this is also the good side of the world, because even if you lose all of it, you have lost nothing,” Mousavi wrote, according to Tasnim.

New York Mayor Zohran Kwame Mamdani has posted a video marking the Nakba, Arabic for “catastrophe,” the displacement of an estimated 750,000 Palestinians during the establishment of 'Israel'.

The video features Inea, a New Yorker, who says she lived through the events from 1948 onwards in Palestine.

Today marks Nakba Day, an annual day of remembrance to commemorate the expulsion of more than 700,000 Palestinians between 1947 and 1949 during the creation of the State of Israel and the year that followed.

Inea is a New Yorker and a Nakba survivor. She shared her story with us… pic.twitter.com/z2PBOaJq5Z

— Mayor Zohran Kwame Mamdani (@NYCMayor) May 15, 2026

US President Donald Trump has said he would accept a 20-year suspension of Iran’s nuclear programme, signaling what appears to be a significant shift from his earlier insistence on a permanent halt to Tehran’s uranium enrichment activities.

Speaking to reporters aboard Air Force One following talks in Beijing with Chinese President Xi Jinping, Trump said any agreement must include firm guarantees.

“Twenty years is enough, but the level of guarantee from them, in other words it’s got to be a real 20 years,” Trump said when asked whether such a suspension would be sufficient.

Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi says the American people will bear rising economic costs from what he described as a “war of choice” on Iran, pointing to higher US Treasury yields and warning of pressure on debt, mortgages and consumer loans.

Araghchi highlighted rising 2-, 10- and 30-year yields as evidence of tightening financial conditions.

He also argued energy prices and household credit stress would worsen, calling the situation entirely “avoidable” after the US and 'Israel' launched the war on his country.

Americans are told that they must absorb rocketing costs of war of choice on Iran.

Put aside gas price hike and stock market bubble. Real pain begins when U.S. debt and mortgage rates start to jump. Auto loan delinquencies are already at 30+-year high.

This was all avoidable. pic.twitter.com/dhjcdzTOHc

— Seyed Abbas Araghchi (@araghchi) May 15, 2026

The United Arab Emirates has released a statement emphasising its “firm approach based on supporting the security and stability of the region”.

The Foreign Ministry “condemned in the strongest terms the Iranian attacks and threats that targeted the state and the countries of the region”.

This included “the launching of approximately 3,000 ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and drones toward the United Arab Emirates”. The statement said the strikes “resulted in deaths and injuries among civilians in addition to damage caused to civil infrastructure”.

The government described the incidents as a “clear violation of the sovereignty of states and a direct threat to the security and stability of the region”. All defensive measures are “aimed at protecting its sovereignty, civilians, and critical infrastructure”.

The UAE “retains its full sovereign, legal, diplomatic, and military rights in confronting any threat or hostile act”, it added.

Any “attempts at pressure or promoting malicious allegations will not affect its firm positions”, the ministry said, and such efforts “will not deter it from protecting its supreme national interests and preserving its sovereignty and independence of decision”.

Iran’s mission to the United Nations says the United States is trying to “manufacture a false image” of broad international backing by highlighting the number of co-sponsors of a Bahrain-backed UN draft resolution on the Strait of Hormuz.

It warned any states backing the text could share “international responsibility” if escalation follows, adding there is “no political excuse or diplomatic cover” for what it described as enabling US “aggression”.

The resolution, supported by the US and Bahrain with backing from Gulf states, calls for freedom of navigation and an end to Iranian attacks in the Gulf.

Democrats have continued to criticise the domestic impact of President Trump’s war on Iran.

Senator Tammy Baldwin said in a post on X: “President Trump’s war of choice in Iran has sent the cost of fertilizer and gas through the roof for our farmers.”

A large share of the world’s fertiliser supply is exported by Gulf states and moves through the Strait of Hormuz.

Mark Warner, chair of the Senate intelligence committee, said: “From gas prices to home costs, Trump’s war of choice is making it harder and harder to afford the life you want.”

Senator Mark Kelly said Trump’s war had “no goal in mind”, and Americans are already paying through higher energy costs.

“We need leaders who are laser focused on lowering costs because this administration is making life more expensive,” Kelly wrote.

The United States Department of Justice confirmed the arrest of Mohammed Baqir al-Saadi, a senior figure in Iraq’s Kataib Hezbollah, and his transfer to the United States for prosecution.

The department said the arrest was carried out in coordination with US security agencies, but did not immediately provide details on where or how the operation took place.

According to the announcement, al-Saadi has been brought to the United States to face federal legal proceedings. 

Senior aides to Donald Trump have drawn up detailed military plans for a possible return to strikes on Iran if he decides to break the current diplomatic stalemate, according to the New York Times, citing US officials.

The report says the proposals remain under review and no decision has been made, with advisers stressing that the president has not approved any next steps.

According to officials quoted by the newspaper, the options being discussed include more intensive bombing campaigns targeting Iranian military infrastructure and facilities linked to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.

The plans also reportedly include broader strike packages designed to hit strategic sites deeper inside Iranian territory, marking a potential escalation beyond previous US actions.

The New York Times reports that some military discussions have gone further, including the possible use of special operations forces in highly sensitive missions.

One scenario described by officials involves attempts to seize or disrupt facilities tied to Iran’s nuclear programme, including deeply buried materials that conventional airstrikes may not reach.

Officials also acknowledged that any attempt to hold strategic territory, such as Iran’s Kharg Island, would require a sustained ground presence and significant military resources.

US officials quoted in the report emphasised that the proposals are contingency plans and not active orders. They added that internal assessments suggest achieving a decisive military outcome in Iran would be highly complex and uncertain.

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Read more: Day 77 | Trump says China's Xi vowed not to send weapons to Iran