'Isareli' army lays out Hamas disarmament plans, signals likely return to war

• The IOF assesses that partial disarmament, including storing Hamas’s heavy weapons inside Gaza, would be ineffective and warns that a renewed military operation is likely if the process collapses.
• 'Israel' outlined strict, layered control plans for Gaza security and the Rafah Crossing, while signaling it will retain a presence near the Philadelphi Corridor.

The Israeli Occupation Forces on Thursday examined a series of detailed scenarios governing the disarmament of Hamas and the reopening of the Rafah Border Crossing, while warning that the process is likely to collapse without renewed military action.

According to Hebrew media, senior military sources assessed that unless US President Donald Trump intervenes, 'Israel' is highly likely to launch another substantial operation against Hamas to enforce disarmament.

Option One: Rejecting Partial Disarmament

The IOF dismissed proposals reportedly circulated by US officials that would focus initially on collecting Hamas’s heavy weapons, including rockets and rocket-propelled grenades, and placing them in storage.

Military officials said such an approach would amount to allowing Hamas to keep its arsenal under a different arrangement. Storing weapons inside Gaza, they warned, would do virtually nothing to degrade Hamas’s power, as the group would either control the guards overseeing the stockpiles or overwhelm them with ease.

According to the IOF, limiting disarmament to heavy weapons would fall far short of operational necessity. Officials stressed that seizing Kalashnikov rifles is essential to reducing Hamas’s lethal capacity, claiming that many victims of the October 7 events were killed using such weapons. The rifles were described as significantly more dangerous and longer-range than handguns, weapons the military may tolerate Hamas retaining temporarily.

Option Two: Limited Security Restructuring in Gaza

The IOF clarified that the International Stabilization Force would not operate inside Hamas-controlled areas or assume meaningful authority over them.

Instead, the force would focus on policing newly established residential zones for Gazans in 'Israel'-controlled sections of Gaza and monitoring the 'Israel'-Hamas “yellow line.” Other reports have indicated the force could also take on limited border-related duties.

In a best-case scenario, military officials said Hamas’s control over Gaza could be reduced, described metaphorically as shifting from a “dark green” to a “lighter shade of green”, if a future Palestinian police force is successfully established and manages to limit the number of committed Hamas fighters within its ranks. Even under this scenario, Hamas would retain some degree of security influence.

Option Three: Multi-Layered Control of the Rafah Crossing

The IPF outlined a complex security framework for reopening the Rafah Border Crossing.

Under the plan, the European Union Border Assistance Mission (EUBAM) would conduct primary inspections of individuals entering and leaving Gaza, reportedly with Palestinian participation. The IOF would then carry out an additional round of physical checks on all those entering Gaza after the EUBAM screening.

For those exiting Gaza into Egypt, the IOF would not conduct physical inspections but would document travelers through video surveillance capturing facial images.

Despite transferring formal authority to a Palestinian technocratic committee, EUBAM, and the International Stabilization Force, military officials advised against a full Israeli withdrawal from the Philadelphi Corridor adjacent to the Rafah Crossing.

Military Assessment: Disarmament Likely to Fail Without Force

After reviewing the various scenarios, IOF sources warned that Hamas is likely to obstruct or derail the disarmament process at some stage. They reiterated that unless blocked by Trump, 'Israel' would likely initiate another military operation to advance disarmament efforts.