Weekend strike on Iran? Trump rhetoric rattles markets

With the aircraft carrier Abraham Lincoln arriving in the Middle East and the President of the United States, Donald Trump, escalating his rhetoric toward Iran, attention is increasingly turning to the timing of any potential military strike.

Analysts say a weekend operation is emerging as a preferred scenario, driven not only by military calculations but also by economic concerns aimed at limiting market turmoil.

Read more: US fleets move toward Middle East as 'Israel' braces for potential strike on Iran

Why the weekend matters

Military and financial analysts note that major strikes are often timed to coincide with the closure of global financial markets on Saturdays and Sundays.

The strategy is designed to absorb the initial shock before Asian and European markets reopen on Monday. A two-day pause gives investors time to assess developments, reducing the risk of panic-driven selloffs during live trading.

US military officials have indicated that the carrier strike group could carry out operations within one or two days, making a weekend window logistically feasible.

Trump has repeatedly warned that “time is running out” for Iran, but managing the immediate reaction in oil and precious metals markets requires a level of calm that is difficult to maintain during active trading hours.

Washington’s stated rationale

The US position rests on two central arguments.

First is Iran’s nuclear program. Trump has warned Tehran to choose between a deal that includes no nuclear weapons or facing a far more severe attack, describing the issue as critical to global security.

Second is what US intelligence assessments describe as Iran’s internal weakness. Reports suggest the government’s grip on power is at its lowest point since the 1979 revolution, amid economic pressure and recurring protests. Analysts say this may encourage Washington to consider limited strikes aimed at undermining the system without triggering a unified response.

Markets signal pre-war anxiety

Financial markets are already showing signs of what traders describe as war-driven anxiety, particularly in gold and other safe-haven assets.

Gold prices have surged sharply, rising by more than 60 percent in 2025 as investors seek protection from geopolitical risk. The price of gold has crossed the $5,000-per-ounce mark, with some speculative forecasts projecting much higher levels if uncertainty escalates.

An attack during active trading hours could send prices soaring uncontrollably, potentially harming the US economy itself. A weekend strike would allow markets to price in developments more gradually before reopening.

Calculated timing

The buildup of US naval forces, aircraft, and personnel, combined with fading diplomatic momentum, has made the weekend scenario increasingly plausible in the eyes of observers.

Analysts say such timing would allow Washington to pursue military objectives while containing what they describe as a potential financial tsunami that could otherwise ripple through global markets.