Europe enters early phase of long-term population decline

• Europe faces a historic population decline that alarms governments over labor and economic stability.
• Financial incentives show limited success as deeper social and economic pressures persist.
  
  

Europe has begun entering a period of sustained population decline, a shift that has left governments increasingly alarmed about the future of their workforces and economic stability, according to a report published by The Washington Post.

The report says the United Nations expects the population of European Union countries to peak next year before entering its first prolonged decline since the Black Death in the 14th century.

Read more: Bondi attack kills 16 as Australia weighs tougher gun laws

The trend has emerged as one of the most serious demographic challenges facing the continent, prompting governments to experiment with financial incentives and social policies aimed at boosting birth rates.

Falling fertility, rising concern

The report notes that fertility rates across the EU have dropped to a record low of 1.38 births per woman, far below the level needed to sustain population size. Many Europeans are also delaying parenthood, often until their late twenties or early thirties.

Scandinavian countries have begun forming special commissions to develop new strategies to address declining birth rates, while other governments have publicly framed the issue as a national priority.

In France, President Emmanuel Macron has called for “demographic rearmament” after fertility rates fell by 18% over the past decade. In countries led by nationalist governments, family policies are often paired with messaging that promotes traditional family structures.

Incentives fall short

Italy offers bonuses to working mothers with two or more children, while Poland has raised monthly child benefits to about $220 per child and introduced major tax cuts for larger families.

Hungary has gone further, investing around 5% of its gross domestic product in family policies over the past 15 years. While its fertility rate rose from 1.25 to 1.61 by 2021, it has since fallen again to 1.39 in 2024.

Experts cited in the report say such incentives may encourage families already planning to have children to do so sooner, but rarely lead to lasting demographic change.

Structural barriers remain

Interviews conducted in Budapest highlight broader frustrations among young people, including high living costs, housing shortages, and a deteriorating public education system.

“I think they should improve other things”, said 24-year-old university student Hanna Kirizsch. “It’s not enough just to help parents”.

Read more: Hollywood director Rob Reiner, wife found dead in Los Angeles home

Adam Petrischlim, a father of three, said the cost of raising children far outweighs state incentives, adding that having a large family is financially difficult in almost any country.

Is migration a solution?

The report notes that migration is often proposed as a remedy for population decline, but warns it may offer only temporary relief as fertility rates fall globally, with the exception of sub-Saharan Africa.

Documentary filmmaker Stephen Shaw told the newspaper that “migration will only be a short-term solution”.

The report concludes that Europe’s demographic crisis requires a comprehensive response that goes beyond financial incentives, including major investments in housing, education, health care, and public infrastructure to create conditions in which families can sustainably grow.