EXCLUSIVE: Inside Japan's new defense blueprint: Why deterrence is the 'only path' to stability

 By Ro’a Hanini  

Editor's Note: This analysis is based on exclusive, high-level briefings attended by Roya News English with senior,  unnamed Japanese officials from the nation's core security apparatus, as well as official defense documents.  

In a series of candid, high-level briefings, senior Japanese officials have detailed the sober, data-driven calculus  behind their nation's new national security architecture. Facing what one official described as the "most severe and  complex" security environment "since the end of the World War II," Japan has activated a profound, but measured,  shift in its defense posture.  

This is not a story of a nation seeking conflict. It is the story of a nation meticulously building the capacity to prevent  it, officials told Roya News English.  

Sparked by Russia's invasion of Ukraine, which one official called a chilling "lesson" in how "intention can change  any time," Japan’s 2022 “three-document” strategy is a blueprint for active peace. It is a deliberate evolution from a  passive shield to a robust, modern deterrent, all while, officials insist, operating firmly within the bounds of its peace oriented constitution.  

- 'Severe' new reality: Data forcing Japan's hand - 

Japan's decision to fundamentally reinforce its defense was not made in a vacuum. Officials laid out a clear "before  and after" picture, comparing the security landscape of 2013, the first time the National Security Strategy was  formulated, to today. The change is stark.  

● China: 

The primary driver is China. Labeled the "greatest strategic challenge" Japan has ever faced, its rapid military  expansion is, as one official noted, being conducted "without transparency." The data from official documents is  stark: China's defense budget has ballooned 2.7 times in a decade. But for Tokyo, the threat is not abstract. Officials  cited an "almost daily" presence of Chinese vessels in the contiguous waters around the Senkaku Islands, a jump  from 79 days a year in 2012 to "up to 355 days" recently. This is coupled with what one official termed "so-called  economic coercion," a strategy of leveraging economic dependence to "expert pressure."  

● North Korea:  

While China is the long-term strategic pacer, North Korea is the immediate danger. Termed a "grave and  imminent threat," Pyongyang's capabilities have evolved dramatically. After launching 18 ballistic missiles in the  two decades before 2013, it has launched over 201 since 2014, including "more than 50 launches" in 2022 alone.  More alarming, officials are not just worried about quantity, but quality. North Korea is testing ICBMs "that cover  the US mainland" and, most concerning for Japan, weapons with "irregular trajectories." One official described  this as a "hypersonic glide vehicle" that "flies low," making it "more difficult to detect... [and] interception is much  more difficult."  

● Russia: 

The war in Ukraine serves as a terrifying case study. It shows, one official said, that Russia "does not hesitate to  resort to military power to achieve its own security objectives." But the newest and most alarming development is 

Russia's "strategic coordination" with Japan's other two adversaries. Documents show joint Chinese-Russian naval  patrols and bomber flights "surrounding Japan." Worse, officials expressed deep concern over a new Russia-North  Korea axis. As Pyongyang sends missiles to the "front line of Ukraine," it is, one official warned, "getting new  know-how for contemporary warfare," possibly including advanced "droning technologies."  

- Goal is not war, but preventing it - 

The core of Japan's new strategy, repeated by every official, is deterrence. The primary goal is to "make the  opponent realize that the goal of invasion... is not worth the cost."  

This is a fundamental shift born from a painful lesson. "The lesson we learned from the Russian aggression in  Ukraine," a Ministry of Defense official stated, "is that Ukraine did not have sufficient defense capability to deter"  the invasion.  

Japan's policy is designed to ensure no potential aggressor ever makes that same calculation in the Indo-Pacific. It is  a posture to guarantee stability by demonstrating the high and prohibitive cost of unilateral, forceful changes to the  status quo.  

- The blueprint: 'counter-strike' shield and 2% budget - 

To achieve this "fundamental reinforcement," Japan is investing heavily, committing to raise its defense budget and  related measures to 2% of its current GDP by FY2027. This unlocks a 43 trillion yen (approx. $290 billion) fund  over the next five years, from FY2023 to FY2027.  

This money is not just for new hardware. A "top priority" is "maximizing effective use of its current equipment,"  which is a direct response to an admission by one official that "until now, we haven't had enough budget for spare  parts" or "sufficient ammunition."  

But the most-discussed element is the acquisition of "counter-strike capabilities," specifically, long-range missiles.  Officials were adamant that this does not violate Japan's constitution. They told Roya News English that it was a  purely defensive measure, one that would only be used to prevent further missile strikes. "We believe that there are  limits by only response with the missile defense system," a defense official said, referencing the new hypersonic  threats.  

This capability is not for pre-emptive strikes. When asked about such a scenario, an official was unequivocal: "That  is... out of my imagination."  

It is, in effect, one of "seven key capabilities" in the new blueprint. These pillars also include "unmanned defense  capabilities," which one official noted is a "labor-saving" necessity for a country with an "declining population." The  pillars also include robust "integrated air and missile defense" to create a credible, multi-layered shield.  

- Diplomacy first: "Multi-layered" web of alliances - 

The new strategy is not an isolationist turn. On the contrary, officials repeatedly emphasized that diplomacy remains  the primary tool and the foundation of its security.  

• With China: Despite being the "greatest challenge," the explicit policy is to "build a constructive and stable  relationship through communication at various levels." 
• With North Korea: Even while building a formidable deterrent, the official stance is unwavering: "Diplomatic  ways are the only solution" for complete denuclearization.  
• With the US: The US alliance remains the "cornerstone" and "indispensable." Japan's new strength is seen as a  way to bolster the "joint deterrence and response capabilities" of the alliance.  

- 'Vital' partnership: Middle East and sea lane security - 

A crucial pillar of this diplomatic outreach is the Middle East. A Ministry of Defense official stated that the region is  "geopolitically very important" for international peace.  

The cooperation is not about power projection. Instead, it is a vital component of Japan's Free and Open Indo-Pacific  (FOIP) vision.  

As one official explained, "the sea lane and the freedom of navigation in the Middle East... is really important"  to achieve that vision.  

- Jordan's critical role as a key partner - 

Jordan, in particular, was singled out as a key partner and a "critical coordination and safety hub" for Japan in the  region.  

This concrete cooperation is built on a formal Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) on defense cooperation  and exchanges. Underscoring the importance of this relationship, the partnership was "recently reinforced with high level visits, including the Japanese Defense Minister visiting... Jordan 'last month' to 'reinforce the defense  corporation.'"  

- Strength as the new path to stability - 

The final takeaway from these exclusive briefings is one of profound, reluctant transformation. The Japan that  emerges from this new blueprint is not a nation eager for a fight; it is a nation that has soberly concluded it must  possess the unmistakable strength to prevent one.  

The "counter-strike" capabilities and the 43 trillion yen budget are not the end goal. They are the means to an end.  That end, as officials repeatedly stressed, is stability.  

It is the creation of a new, credible deterrent designed to make any potential aggression in the Indo-Pacific simply  "not worth the cost."  

This, then, is the new Japanese doctrine: a clear-eyed, data-driven response to a "severe and complex" world. It is not  about seeking conflict, but about building a realistic foundation of strength, so that diplomacy, which officials still  insist is the "only solution", has a chance to succeed.