Two years after October 7: A timeline of the genocide that reshaped the Middle East

Over the past two years, the conflict has not been merely a military confrontation; it has triggered deep strategic shifts across the region.

As the second anniversary of the events of October 7, 2023 approaches, the world reflects on two years of a full-scale war that has transformed the Middle East.

What began as a surprise attack by the Qassam Brigades, resulting in the deaths of around 1,200 'Israelis' and the capture of nearly 250, evolved into a devastating military campaign on the Gaza Strip, causing an unprecedented humanitarian catastrophe and sparking an open-ended regional escalation.

Over these two years, the conflict extended from Gaza to international courts in The Hague, witnessed systematic assassinations of resistance leaders in Palestine, Lebanon, and Iran, escalated into direct 'Israeli'-Iranian confrontations, and drew US military involvement.

Today, after two bloody years, the region faces the “Trump Peace Plan” amid an uncertain future and fragile prospects for resolution.

Phase one: Shock and devastating response (October–December 2023)

October 7, 2023: The Al-Qassam Brigades launched the Operation Aqsa Typhoon attack on the Gaza Envelope, causing heavy casualties among 'Israeli' soldiers and settlers and capturing hundreds.

October 8, 2023: The 'Israeli' government officially declared war and launched Swords of Iron War with the stated aim of destroying Hamas’ military capabilities, imposing a full blockade on the Strip.

October 17, 2023: The Al-Ahli Arab Hospital Massacre in Gaza killed hundreds, prompting widespread international condemnation.

October 27, 2023: 'Israeli' forces began a ground invasion of northern Gaza, alongside complete cuts to communications, water, and electricity.

November 24–December 1, 2023: A temporary humanitarian truce mediated by Qatar and Egypt allowed the exchange of 105 captives for 240 Palestinian prisoners, marking the only truce to hold briefly.

Phase two: 2024 – Major raids and targeted assassinations

In 2024, 'Israel' shifted toward systematically targeting top resistance leaders while expanding ground operations:

• January: Assassination of Saleh al-Arouri, deputy head of Hamas’ political bureau, in Beirut; the International Court of Justice issued precautionary measures against 'Israel'.
• March: Marwan Issa, deputy commander of the Qassam Brigades, killed in a strike in central Gaza.
• May: Ground assault on Rafah city and occupation of the border crossing with Egypt despite the ICJ’s order to halt operations.
• July: Assassination of Ismail Haniyeh, head of Hamas’ political bureau, in Tehran in a mysterious attack.
• August: Mohammad Deif, commander of the Qassam Brigades, killed in a strike on Khan Younis.
• October: Yahya Sinwar, Hamas leader in Gaza, killed during clashes in Rafah.
• May 2025: 'Israel' claims assassination of Mohammad Sinwar, Al-Qassam commander.

Phase three: Full-scale war on Lebanon (September–November 2024)

After months of attrition along the border, the conflict escalated into open war in Lebanon:

• September 17–18, 2024: Unprecedented technological attack destroyed thousands of Hezbollah communication devices, killing and injuring hundreds, temporarily crippling field command.
• September 20, 2024: Assassination of Ibrahim Aqil, senior Hezbollah military commander, in a strike on southern Beirut.
• September 27, 2024: Assassination of Hassan Nasrallah in a powerful airstrike that destroyed Hezbollah’s headquarters in Hara Hreik, causing a major leadership vacuum and shock.
• October 1, 2024: Limited 'Israeli' ground incursion in southern Lebanon to push Hezbollah forces from the border and establish a buffer zone.
• October 3, 2024: Assassination of Hashem Safieddine, Hezbollah’s executive council head and potential successor to Nasrallah.
• November 27, 2024: Ceasefire agreement reached after weeks of destructive fighting, mediated by the US and France, temporarily ending the fiercest round of conflict since 2006.

Phase four: Confrontation with Iran

June 13, 2025: 'Israel' launched a wide-ranging airstrike on key Iranian targets, including nuclear facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, missile factories, and IRGC military bases. Several senior military leaders and nuclear scientists were killed, along with hundreds of civilian casualties.

In retaliation, Iran’s Revolutionary Guard fired hundreds of ballistic missiles and drone attacks at 'Israeli' military targets and US bases in the region. Over 150 military and intelligence sites were targeted according to Iranian reports.

June 22, 2025: The US directly intervened with a limited military operation, Operation Midnight Hammer, deploying B-2 stealth bombers to strike and destroy three Iranian nuclear sites.

Analysts noted the dual aim: reassure 'Israel' and deter Iran from further attacks while avoiding a broader regional war.

The confrontation triggered global energy panic, with Brent crude oil prices jumping about 11 percent amid threats to close the Strait of Hormuz. Shipping was temporarily disrupted before diplomatic efforts contained the crisis. The direct confrontation ended with a ceasefire on June 24, 2025, but marked a strategic shift in the region.

Phase five: Trump’s peace plan for Gaza

Returning to the White House in January 2025, President Donald Trump shifted US strategy from absolute military support for 'Israel' to a high-risk diplomatic initiative for post-war Gaza.

The 20-Point Plan, officially revealed in September 2025, combined security measures with ambitious economic visions led by Jared Kushner:

• Immediate ceasefire and 'Israeli' withdrawal: Pullback from populated areas and redeployment along agreed security lines.
• Comprehensive prisoner exchange: Release of all detainees held by Palestinian factions within 72 hours, in exchange for 2,000 long-term 'Israeli' prisoners.
• Temporary international administration: Formation of a Palestinian-international technocratic committee with Arab support to manage civil affairs in Gaza under direct US oversight.
• Complete disarmament: Full demilitarization of Palestinian factions, with security under the international force.

Economically, the plan proposed massive reconstruction funding and investments, aiming to transform Gaza into the “Riviera of the Middle East,” including exploitation of offshore gas fields and revival of the historic Ben-Gurion Canal project.

Speculation arose about a role for former UK Prime Minister Tony Blair as a potential head of the international technocratic committee.

October 3, 2025: Hamas gave preliminary approval for the prisoner exchange but rejected the full disarmament clause, viewing it as a condition of surrender, leaving the plan stalled amid political deadlock.

Analysis: Five major transformations that redefined the conflict

After two years of devastating war, ongoing humanitarian tragedy, and unprecedented regional escalation, the world faces a crucial crossroads: either diplomacy succeeds in imposing a realistic settlement or the region slides into an even more dangerous phase of open conflict.

The war triggered five major strategic shifts:

1. Humanitarian and legal transformation: Gaza’s humanitarian catastrophe mobilized global opinion and brought the conflict to international courts, putting 'Israeli' officials at legal risk.
2. Regional transformation: The conflict expanded from Palestine to open regional confrontations, including direct strikes between 'Israel' and Iran.
3. American transformation: Under Trump, the US shifted from indirect support to limited military intervention and direct political initiatives for post-war governance.
4. Economic transformation: The war sparked a global energy crisis, driving oil prices to multi-year highs and disrupting international shipping.
5. Global narrative shift: International discourse reframed the war from a “war on terror” to accusations of “genocide.”