Concerns in ‘Israel’ over Egyptian Air Force strength: Hebrew media

Recent military exercises have sparked concern in ‘Israel’, following analysis published in Hebrew media outlets regarding the rapid modernization and proven capabilities of the Egyptian Air Force.

The report warned of the sheer scale of Egypt’s air power and the unexpected tactical demonstration of its French-made Dassault Rafale fighters during a recent international exercise.

The Egyptian Air Force is described as one of the most advanced and diverse in the Middle East, quantified as being "24% larger than ours [Israel's]".

Shockwave: Rafale Outmaneuvers F-35

The most "unsettling" demonstration of capability occurred in August 2025 during the NATO "Atlantic Trident" exercise held in Finland.

The exercise, which focused on the complex doctrine of Agile Combat Employment (ACE), requiring rapid deployment and maneuverability from improvised airstrips, unexpectedly highlighted the dominance of the 4.5 generation Rafale jet.

The French-made multi-role fighter, which was described by Hebrew media as the "most interesting aircraft in the Egyptian catalog", consistently prevailed in close-range air combat scenarios (dogfights) against premier American aircraft.

Notably, the Rafale repeatedly won engagements against the US Air Force’s 5th generation stealth fighter, the F-35, and the heavily-armed F-15E Strike Eagle.

The analysis explicitly pointed out that aircraft "like those of the IAF" (referring to the Israeli Air Force's use of F-35s and F-15s) lost to the Rafale.

The Rafale’s success was attributed to its superior aerodynamic design, which prioritizes agility and a high thrust-to-weight ratio over the structural weight required for stealth.

In a close-quarters engagement, the lighter Rafale was able to "evade the stealth fighter relatively easily, sit on its tail, and win the dogfight".

Furthermore, the Rafale proved capable of targeting the F-35 using integrated passive thermal sensors, effectively negating the F-35's core stealth advantage in that specific tactical environment.

Egypt’s Strategic Hedge

Adding to the strategic complexity is Egypt's highly sophisticated procurement strategy, which aims to neutralize vulnerabilities across the entire spectrum of aerial conflict.

Just three months prior to the NATO exercise, a separate conflict between India and Pakistan over Kashmir saw a contradictory result: three Indian Rafale jets were shot down by Pakistani J-10 jets.

Egyptian defense planners have seemingly taken note of this vulnerability. Cairo is now actively pursuing the acquisition of the Chinese J-10 fighter, intending to use it as a force multiplier for its existing Rafale fleet.

If the deal is finalized, Egypt will possess a paradoxical fleet capable of defeating the core strengths of every major regional air power :

The Dassault Rafale: Proven victorious over the F-35 and F-15 in kinematic close combat.

The Chinese J-10: Proven victorious over the Rafale in a real-world scenario (likely leveraging superior Beyond Visual Range or Electronic Warfare capabilities).

This comes amid a backdrop of rapidly increasing diplomatic and military tensions between the ‘Israel’ and Egypt, effectively shifting the decades-long “cold peace” toward open confrontation.

Cairo has recently intensified its diplomatic posture, with President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi escalating rhetoric at an emergency summit in Doha in September 2025.

Official Egyptian communications now refer to ‘Israel’s’ actions in Gaza as “ethnic cleansing and crimes against humanity,” and state media has begun referring to ‘Israel’ as “the enemy”.

Tensions have also soared over the war on Gaza and the potential for a mass refugee influx into Egypt’s Sinai Peninsula.

Egypt has drawn an official “red line,” declaring that any ‘Israeli’ attempt to force Gazans across the border would trigger emergency military moves, including the deployment of heavy weaponry and a commitment to double the existing 40,000 troops along the border within 72 hours.

Cairo has also declared that any ‘Israeli’ attack on Egyptian territory would be treated as a declaration of war.

The tension is compounded by disputes over military deployments. ‘Israel’ has raised alarms regarding an alleged military buildup by Egypt in the Sinai, warning that new runways, underground facilities, and heavy troop deployments may violate the 1979 peace treaty.