US intelligence believes Iran holds 1,500–2,500 missiles: WSJ
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US intelligence assesses that Iran retains between 1,500 and 2,500 missiles, according to officials cited by The Wall Street Journal, giving Tehran significant capacity to strike US and allied targets if large-scale fighting resumes.
The assessment is described as low-confidence because of difficulties in precisely tracking how many missiles Iran has ready for launch or held in storage.
Officials nevertheless said it was clear that Iran still possessed a formidable stockpile.
The reconstitution of Tehran’s missile inventory has factored into Trump administration discussions about whether to resume strikes.
The figures contrast with repeated public assertions by senior US officials that Iran’s missile capabilities had been severely degraded.
Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has previously described Iran’s missile program as “functionally destroyed,” with launchers, production facilities, and existing stockpiles “depleted and decimated and almost completely ineffective.”
President Trump has similarly characterized Iran’s military as “decimated” and claimed large reductions in its missile and production capacity.
Prewar ‘Israeli’ estimates put Iran’s ballistic missile arsenal at roughly 2,500.
Iran is assessed to have fired at least 2,200 ballistic missiles and more than 4,900 Shahed-type one-way attack drones since the conflict intensified around late February.
Separate Western intelligence reporting from mid-November indicated Iran likely still holds at least 1,700 ballistic missiles and can assemble about 50 per month—roughly half its prewar production rate—using stockpiled components in underground facilities.
Iran has sought to protect and rebuild elements of its arsenal through underground infrastructure.
The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps recently released footage of what it called a new underground “missile city,” displaying ballistic and cruise missiles along with launchers.
Officials have said production lines were shifted underground to sustain output even under bombardment.
Analysts note that while surface production facilities suffered heavy damage, reserves of components have allowed limited reassembly.
