Iran still producing 50 ballistic missiles each month: report

A Western intelligence assessment cited by Bloomberg indicates that Iran can produce roughly 50 ballistic missiles per month—about half its prewar capacity—despite months of US and ‘Israeli’ airstrikes that have heavily damaged its industrial base.

The alleged estimate suggests Tehran retains a formidable means of retaliation if hostilities resume.

US officials have maintained since the early stages of the conflict, which began on February 28, that Iran’s arsenal and ability to reconstitute it were thoroughly degraded.

Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth reiterated this view on Tuesday, stating that 80 percent of Iran’s industrial base had been destroyed and that more than 80 percent of its nuclear industrial base was gone.

The assessment contrasts with those claims by highlighting ongoing limited production.

According to a Western official citing military intelligence reports, Iran most likely retains at least 1,700 ballistic missiles and continues building more at roughly half the prewar rate.

Its conventional military forces have largely been wiped out by the air campaign, yet the remaining stockpile and production capacity provide significant retaliatory potential.

‘Israel’ had estimated Iran possessed about 2,500 ballistic missiles before the war.

Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps released footage on Tuesday of what it described as the unveiling of a new underground “missile city.”

In the video, published by the semi-official Fars news agency, Gen. Ali Abdollahi, chief of the general staff, told troops that “surprises in a future war will be revealed one after the other.”

Jim Lamson, a former CIA analyst and visiting research fellow at King’s College London, said there could also be thousands of Shahed-type strike weapons remaining.

Exact numbers for both ballistic missiles and Shaheds are difficult to determine because the size of Iran’s prewar stockpile is unknown, as is the extent to which it has reconstituted fired or destroyed systems.

“The Iranians have likely reconstituted a substantial amount of drones and missiles,” said Ankit Panda, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

A stockpile of missile components has enabled Tehran to continue assembling weapons even as airstrikes severely degraded large-scale manufacturing capacity, Lamson noted.

Iran has launched more than 4,900 Shahed propeller-driven cruise missiles and at least 2,200 ballistic missiles since the conflict began, according to Bloomberg Economics analysis.

Western intelligence officials have also reported that Russia is providing strike weapons to Iran, though the types and quantities remain unclear.

President Donald Trump has indicated he does not currently see a need for further major strikes, though a maritime blockade of Iran remains in place and continues to impose economic pressure.

Analysts note that while the United States holds substantial reserves of precision munitions, heavy use of interceptors has depleted some stocks.

“It was never a direct contest between Iran and American missile stockpiles,” said Becca Wasser of Bloomberg Economics.

“The US outguns Iran, but Iran’s strategy requires just enough capability to disrupt, impose costs and endure.”