Trump may launch strikes on Iran if GOP suffers midterm defeat: report

One US official cited by Axios said President Donald Trump might be more inclined to order a major military operation against Iran if Republicans lose badly in next week’s midterm elections.

“If he feels embarrassed or disenfranchised he will do something bold. That’s what everyone are telling the Iranians. Their best shot to get a deal is right now,” the official said.

A White House official countered that election results would not factor into Trump’s decision-making on Iran, Axios also reported.

The comment came as Qatari mediators held more than 12 hours of talks in Tehran on Friday in a bid to restart direct US-Iran negotiations and avert an outbreak of war after the midterms.

Discussions were set to continue in Doha on Saturday.

A diplomatic source said the Qataris stayed in regular contact with the White House and reported “positive progress,” with efforts ongoing “to unlock a deal between the US and Iran.”

Mediators are pressing both sides toward a package of reciprocal steps that could be carried out over several days and return the parties to direct talks on Iran’s nuclear program and other issues.

Progress has been blocked by competing demands: the Trump administration insists Iran make nuclear concessions as part of any resumption of talks, while Iran requires the United States first to lift its naval blockade, release frozen funds, and allow oil sales.

Qatar is urging Iran to allow U.N. inspectors to visit previously bombed nuclear sites as a confidence-building measure that could be met with limited sanctions relief.

Inside the administration, views remain divided.

Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and Secretary of State Marco Rubio are reportedly highly skeptical that a nuclear agreement can be reached with the current Iranian government and favor further weakening the regime, including through additional strikes.

Vice President JD Vance and envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner have favored resuming negotiations, though Trump himself has expressed skepticism that Iran will accept terms he finds acceptable.

“There are talks. They want to talk. They keep talking. ... We have time, frankly. It’s a war, but it is not a typical war,” Trump told reporters on Friday.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has urged giving the economic pressure campaign more time.

Regional governments including Egypt, Turkey, Iraq, Pakistan, and Saudi Arabia have been urging Iran to agree to resume negotiations before the midterms.

Saudi and Turkish leaders have also pressed Trump in recent days to allow more time for diplomacy.

At the same time, ‘Israeli’ Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has been lobbying for a joint US-‘Israeli’ operation against Iran immediately after the election.

US officials and regional diplomats have indicated that Washington is only days away from a possible military operation that could inflict heavy damage on Iran and trigger retaliatory strikes against ‘Israel’ and Gulf states.

Iran has vowed to respond to any US attacks on its energy infrastructure by targeting oil and gas facilities in Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, Kuwait, and Bahrain.

Any such campaign would likely be conducted jointly with ‘Israel’, with potential Iranian missile retaliation and possible involvement by Hezbollah.