Day 246 | Rubio hosts G20 ministers as Iran, Ukraine wars divide members

Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi threatened an “earth-shattering blow” by Iran’s military against “those who dare harm its people.”

In a post on X on Saturday, Araghchi responded to German Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s comments on the economic impact of the ongoing ‘Israeli’-US war on Iran.

He noted that when US and ‘Israeli’ bombings of Iran began last year, Merz had welcomed them as “doing Europe’s dirty work.”

When Israel-US bombings of Iran began last year, Mr. Merz hailed them. "Doing Europe's dirty work" 100bn Euro is nothing compared to the Earth-shattering blow Iran's Powerful Armed Forces will deal against those who dare harm our people. Red lines are a thing of the past.

— Seyed Abbas Araghchi (@araghchi) October 31, 2026

“100bn Euro is nothing compared to the Earth-shattering blow Iran’s Powerful Armed Forces will deal against those who dare harm our people,” Araghchi wrote.

“Red lines are a thing of the past.”

Merz, speaking in South Korea on Friday, said higher energy prices linked to the conflict had cost Europe more than €100 billion over the past eight months.

He stated that the confrontation cannot be resolved militarily and urged all parties, including ‘Israel’, to pursue a diplomatic solution through negotiations.

Germany has a direct economic interest in ending the fighting quickly, he added.

The conflict began with US and ‘Israeli’ strikes on Iran in February, following earlier exchanges in 2025 that targeted Iranian nuclear and military sites.

Disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz have contributed to elevated global energy prices.

Both sides have previously explored temporary pauses and mediated proposals, but tensions remain high amid reports of potential further military activity.

One US official cited by Axios said President Donald Trump might be more inclined to order a major military operation against Iran if Republicans lose badly in next week’s midterm elections.

“If he feels embarrassed or disenfranchised he will do something bold. That’s what everyone are telling the Iranians. Their best shot to get a deal is right now,” the official said.

A White House official countered that election results would not factor into Trump’s decision-making on Iran, Axios also reported.

The comment came as Qatari mediators held more than 12 hours of talks in Tehran on Friday in a bid to restart direct US-Iran negotiations and avert an outbreak of war after the midterms.

Discussions were set to continue in Doha on Saturday.

A diplomatic source said the Qataris stayed in regular contact with the White House and reported “positive progress,” with efforts ongoing “to unlock a deal between the US and Iran.”

Mediators are pressing both sides toward a package of reciprocal steps that could be carried out over several days and return the parties to direct talks on Iran’s nuclear program and other issues.

Progress has been blocked by competing demands: the Trump administration insists Iran make nuclear concessions as part of any resumption of talks, while Iran requires the United States first to lift its naval blockade, release frozen funds, and allow oil sales.

Qatar is urging Iran to allow U.N. inspectors to visit previously bombed nuclear sites as a confidence-building measure that could be met with limited sanctions relief.

Inside the administration, views remain divided.

Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and Secretary of State Marco Rubio are reportedly highly skeptical that a nuclear agreement can be reached with the current Iranian government and favor further weakening the regime, including through additional strikes.

Vice President JD Vance and envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner have favored resuming negotiations, though Trump himself has expressed skepticism that Iran will accept terms he finds acceptable.

“There are talks. They want to talk. They keep talking. ... We have time, frankly. It’s a war, but it is not a typical war,” Trump told reporters on Friday.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has urged giving the economic pressure campaign more time.

Regional governments including Egypt, Turkey, Iraq, Pakistan, and Saudi Arabia have been urging Iran to agree to resume negotiations before the midterms.

Saudi and Turkish leaders have also pressed Trump in recent days to allow more time for diplomacy.

At the same time, ‘Israeli’ Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has been lobbying for a joint US-‘Israeli’ operation against Iran immediately after the election.

US officials and regional diplomats have indicated that Washington is only days away from a possible military operation that could inflict heavy damage on Iran and trigger retaliatory strikes against ‘Israel’ and Gulf states.

Iran has vowed to respond to any US attacks on its energy infrastructure by targeting oil and gas facilities in Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, Kuwait, and Bahrain.

Any such campaign would likely be conducted jointly with ‘Israel’, with potential Iranian missile retaliation and possible involvement by Hezbollah.

The Saudi-led coalition supporting Yemen’s internationally recognized government said on Saturday that its forces intercepted and destroyed a drone launched by Yemen’s Houthi movement toward the kingdom’s southern region.

Coalition spokesman Maj. Gen. Turki al-Maliki announced the interception in a statement on the official account @CJFCSpox.

التحالف: اعتراض وتدمير طائرة مسيرة بالمنطقة الجنوبية أطلقتها الميليشيا الحوثية الإرهابية. https://t.co/BdBGrDbWTT

— المتحدث الرسمي باسم قوات التحالف (@CJFCSpox) October 31, 2026

The brief statement described the drone as having been launched by the “terrorist Houthi militia” and did not report casualties or damage.

The incident is the latest in a series of cross-border attacks and interceptions between the Iran-aligned Houthis and the Saudi-led coalition that have intensified throughout October.

Coalition forces have repeatedly reported destroying Houthi ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and drones aimed at targets across Saudi Arabia, including the capital Riyadh, the Eastern Province, southern areas, and regions near Mecca and Medina.

Houthi forces have claimed responsibility for strikes on airports, energy infrastructure, and other sites, while the coalition has stated that most projectiles were intercepted.

Iranian strikes have caused at least $5 billion in damage to US military bases across the Middle East, according to a Wall Street Journal investigation published this week that provides the most detailed public accounting yet of the destruction.

The report, drawing on satellite imagery, Iranian military statements and interviews with US officials, identified 274 damaged structures at 24 installations with an American military presence during the war’s first six months.

Journal reporters analyzed tens of thousands of images after commercial satellite providers restricted high-resolution views of regional bases early in the conflict.

The Pentagon has not publicly detailed the damage but has internally priced it at a minimum of $5 billion, according to US officials familiar with the matter.

A separate person briefed on the figures said the total could reach as high as $15 billion.

These costs are excluded from broader war spending estimates, which US Central Command has put at $47.1 billion through mid-October, largely for munitions and equipment.

A notable shift occurred after a ceasefire collapsed in July. Iran increasingly targeted buildings where American troops live and sleep, demonstrating improved ability to sequence attacks and strike with greater precision.

“Iran was taking more direct aim at the buildings that house American troops,” the Journal reported based on its analysis.

Earlier phases of the conflict also inflicted heavy damage, including repeated strikes on Naval Support Activity Bahrain, the headquarters of the US Navy’s Fifth Fleet.

Previous Journal reporting estimated reconstruction costs for that base alone at roughly $400 million.

Democratic senators, including Elizabeth Warren, have pressed the Pentagon to release official damage figures publicly, arguing that classified briefings and incomplete cost tallies leave the full financial impact unclear.

Officials have indicated some facilities may not be fully rebuilt, with potential adjustments to the US military footprint in the region under consideration.

Some US officials believe Iran has conserved advanced missiles that could enable more effective attacks if fighting intensifies

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio meets with Saudi Foreign Minister Faisal bin Farhan Al Saud in Atlanta on the sidelines of a G20 foreign ministers' meeting dominated by the conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, as well as tensions in energy markets.

The spokesperson for the Saudi-led Coalition, Major General Turki Al-Maliki, stated on Friday that coalition forces intercepted and destroyed a drone in Saudi Arabia’s Eastern Province.

The brief announcement, posted on the coalition’s official X account, provided no further details on the drone’s origin, exact location within the region, or any resulting damage or casualties.

The Eastern Province, home to major oil facilities and the city of Dammam, has been a frequent area of reported interceptions in recent weeks amid a sharp escalation in cross-border attacks from Iran-backed Yemen’s Houthis.

التحالف: اعتراض وتدمير طائرة مسيرة بالمنطقة الشرقية. https://t.co/we4lC7teDh

— المتحدث الرسمي باسم قوات التحالف (@CJFCSpox) October 30, 2026

The coalition has repeatedly announced the downing of drones and ballistic missiles launched toward various parts of Saudi Arabia, including Riyadh, Medina, Mecca, and southern regions.

The Houthis have claimed responsibility for multiple strikes on Saudi airports, oil infrastructure, and other sites throughout October, including facilities in the Eastern Province.

The coalition has attributed many of the attempted attacks to the group and reported successful interceptions by Saudi air defenses in most cases.

The renewed hostilities follow the breakdown of a fragile 2022 truce earlier this year and intensified fighting inside Yemen, where Saudi-backed government forces are engaged against Houthi positions.

Qatari negotiators flew back to Doha from Tehran on Friday after a day of discussions on a potential deal between the United States and Iran, with Iranian negotiators joining them on the flight.

Talks are set to continue on Saturday, according to a diplomatic source cited by Axios journalist Barak Ravid.

The session in Tehran lasted about 12 hours.

Qatari negotiators are flying back to Doha from Tehran after a day of talks on a possible deal with the US. Iranian negotiators joining them on the flight back to Doha. Talks will continue on Saturday, a diplomatic source tells me

— Barak Ravid (@BarakRavid) October 30, 2026

Qatari mediators remained in regular contact with the White House throughout the day as they worked to advance negotiations, Ravid reported earlier.

The mediation forms part of ongoing Qatari efforts to bridge differences in the roughly eight-month conflict between the US and Iran.

Qatar has shuttled proposals, including versions of a seven-day confidence-building framework that Iran presented earlier.

Under elements discussed, steps could involve easing restrictions on Iranian ports and oil exports in exchange for measures related to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and eventual talks on other issues.

Key disagreements persist over sequencing.

Washington has sought to include nuclear matters—such as access for International Atomic Energy Agency inspectors and the status of Iran’s highly enriched uranium stockpile—from the outset of any process.

Tehran has prioritized an end to the US port blockade and relief from oil export sanctions first, while maintaining its position on the nuclear program.

A recent Qatari draft was described by a senior Iranian official as unacceptable.

The latest talks in Tehran were coordinated with the United States, according to officials briefed on the process.

The diplomatic push comes amid regional concerns about possible renewed military action after next week’s US midterm elections.

No breakthrough was immediately reported. Discussions are expected to resume in Doha on Saturday, per Axios.

The Yemen's Iran-backed Houthis on Friday denied launching a drone toward Medina after the Saudi-led coalition reported intercepting and destroying an unmanned aircraft over the Medina region.

In a statement, the Houthis said they had not carried out any operation targeting Saudi territory.

The group dismissed Saudi Arabia's claims of intercepting a drone over Medina as "blatant fabrications," accusing the Saudi government of spreading false allegations against them. 

The statement described the accusations as evidence of what it called the Saudi regime's "moral and ethical bankruptcy,” according to their military spokesperson Yahya Saree.

The denial came after Saudi-led coalition spokesperson Turki Al-Maliki announced that air defenses had intercepted and destroyed a drone launched by the Houthis toward Saudi Arabia.

The coalition also reported intercepting a cruise missile targeting western Saudi Arabia on Friday, according to Anadolu Agency.

The latest exchange comes amid escalating cross-border hostilities between Saudi Arabia and the Houthis, who control Yemen's capital, Sanaa, and large parts of the country.

Escalating attacks

The Houthis claimed on Thursday that they had carried out six military operations against Saudi targets, including oil facilities, airports and military installations.

The claims have not been independently verified.

The Saudi-led coalition has also reported intercepting drones and ballistic missiles launched toward the kingdom in recent days, including incidents involving the Holy regions of Mecca and Medina.

The coalition intervened in Yemen's civil war in March 2015 in support of the internationally recognized government, following the Houthis' seizure of Sanaa in September 2014.

The latest escalation is unfolding amid the wider US-‘Israeli’ war on Iran.

For coverage of the previous day, visit the link below.

Read more: Day 245 | Saudi Arabia intercepts Houthi missiles, explosions in Iran