‘Israel’ votes in pivotal election as Netanyahu fights to stay in power

• The Oct. 27 election is the first since Oct. 7, 2023.
• Pre-election polls suggest neither Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s bloc nor the opposition is assured of the 61 seats needed to form a majority.
• Security failures, judicial reforms, military exemptions for ultra-Orthodox Jews and growing international criticism are key campaign issues.

‘Israel’ is holding parliamentary elections on Tuesday, Oct. 27, in a vote that could determine Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s political future as the country faces domestic divisions, prolonged regional conflicts and mounting international criticism.

The election is the first since Oct. 7, 2023 and the subsequent wars in Gaza, Lebanon, and Iran. While the results will determine the composition of the 120-member Knesset, the fragmented political landscape means that securing the most seats may not be enough to form the next government.

Who is competing?

 The election is between Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s governing bloc and a fragmented opposition led by several former military and political figures. Gadi Eisenkot is a principal individual challenger to Netanyahu, while former prime minister Naftali Bennett is another major rival. The opposition’s broader effort to replace Netanyahu depends on whether its parties can secure enough seats to form a government.

Netanyahu’s Likud party leads the governing bloc, which includes far-right parties such as Otzma Yehudit and Religious Zionism, alongside the ultra-Orthodox parties Shas and United Torah Judaism.

Eisenkot, a former chief of staff of the 'Israeli' military, leads the centrist Yashar party and has focused on accountability for the security failures surrounding the Oct. 7, 2023 attacks. Bennett leads the Together alliance, which includes opposition leader Yair Lapid. Other opposition parties include Yair Golan’s Democrats and Avigdor Lieberman’s Yisrael Beiteinu.

Arab-led parties, including Ra’am and the Joint List, are also competing for seats. However, both major blocs face political obstacles to cooperating with them, potentially complicating efforts to form a governing coalition.

A pre-election poll by public broadcaster KAN projected 52 seats for the opposition alliance and 50 for Netanyahu’s bloc, with the remaining seats going to other parties. This was a poll projection, not an election result. Neither camp was assured of the 61 seats required for a majority, making smaller parties and post-election coalition negotiations potentially decisive.

What issues are shaping the vote?

Security and accountability remain central to the campaign. Netanyahu faces criticism over security failures preceding the Oct. 7 attacks, while his government’s military policies and approach to regional threats remain key points of contention.

The election is also taking place amid disputes over exemptions from military service for ultra-Orthodox men, which have fuelled tensions over the distribution of national service obligations.

Judicial reform is another dividing line. Netanyahu’s efforts to overhaul the judiciary have drawn opposition from critics who argue that the changes would weaken democratic institutions and checks on executive power.

Beyond domestic politics, voters are weighing the consequences of prolonged military conflicts, economic uncertainty and growing international opposition to ‘Israel’s’ conduct in Gaza and elsewhere. The election could influence whether the next government continues Netanyahu’s current approach or seeks to repair strained international relationships.

Could Palestinian citizens influence the outcome?

Approximately 7.3 million citizens are eligible to vote, including Palestinian citizens of ‘Israel’, who number around 1.2 million.

Their turnout could affect the number of seats won by Arab-led parties and the wider balance of power in the Knesset. However, parliamentary representation does not necessarily translate into participation in government: both major political camps have faced significant resistance to relying on Arab-led parties to form a governing coalition.

The election also highlights the limits of the electorate. Millions of Palestinians in Gaza, the occupied West Bank and occupied East Jerusalem have no vote in the ‘Israeli’ election, despite the ‘Israeli’ government’s control over significant aspects of their movement, access and legal status.

When will the results be known?

Polling stations are scheduled to open at 7 a.m. and close at 10 p.m. local time on Tuesday. Television exit polls are expected after voting ends, offering the first indication of the likely outcome.

Initial results may reveal the broad distribution of seats within hours, but the final tally could take longer. Reuters reported that the final count is expected by Oct. 30, with official results due to be published on Nov. 4.

These timelines concern the counting and certification of votes; they do not mean a new government will necessarily be formed by those dates.

What happens if neither bloc wins a majority?

‘Israel’s’ proportional electoral system allocates seats according to parties’ share of the national vote. Lists must clear an electoral threshold of 3.25% to enter the Knesset.

After the results are finalised, President Isaac Herzog is expected to consult party leaders and nominate the candidate he believes has the best chance of forming a government. The nominee can receive up to 42 days under the applicable process to assemble a governing coalition.

If the first nominee fails, another candidate may have an opportunity to form a government. If coalition negotiations ultimately fail, another election could be called, with the existing cabinet continuing in a caretaker capacity in the meantime.

Small parties could therefore wield considerable influence. Even if one bloc finishes ahead of the other, its ability to secure enough partners may prove more important than its initial seat count.

Ultimately, the election is a test not only of Netanyahu’s political standing but also of whether ‘Israel’s’ divided political system can produce a stable government after years of war and domestic polarisation. The result may establish which camp has the strongest position, but the negotiations that follow could determine who actually takes power.

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