A police officer monitors traffic as he stands under portraits of Iran's supreme leader Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei in Tehran. (October 21, 2026)
Day 239 | Signs point to renewed major US military ops against Iran
The United States appears to be preparing to resume large-scale strikes against Iran, but there is unlikely to be a military solution for either side in the devastating conflict, experts say.
Washington and Tehran's forces have settled into a pattern of strikes on commercial ships, with the United States seeking to enforce a blockade of Iran's ports and the Islamic republic trying to exert control over the key Strait of Hormuz waterway.
Neither country has engaged in major attacks on land-based targets since early September, but that may soon change.
"I'm banking now on the likelihood of strikes shortly after the midterms," said Suzanne Maloney, director of the foreign policy program at the Brookings Institution, referring to November 3 elections in the United States.
She pointed to potential signs including the movement of additional US military assets and troops to the Middle East, warnings issued to Americans in the region, and a high alert status for ‘Israeli’ forces.
Additionally, President Donald Trump "came out publicly and said that he wouldn't strike before the midterms," and "it wouldn't seem to help him at the polls to do so," Maloney said.
The US-‘Israeli’ war against Iran is largely unpopular in the United States, especially because it has sharply driven up fuel prices, and is likely to be a drag on Trump's Republican Party in the key vote.
"Fundamentally, the situation isn't sustainable in its current state," Maloney said, noting that the US blockade is "creating greater pain for the Iranians," while Washington has a large number of naval assets tied up in enforcing it.
Trump said Friday that "we may do another little Epic Fury" -- the name for the US operation against Iran that was launched in late February -- if Tehran does not make a deal, but gave no indication on timing.
Iranian plans to kill US diplomats reached “advanced stages”: Axios
US intelligence has assessed that Iran has “substantially increased” its efforts to target American diplomats and officials in the Middle East and beyond, with lethal plots reaching “advanced stages,” according to a recent memo obtained by Axios.
The one-page unclassified memo from Director of National Intelligence Jay Clayton to Secretary of State Marco Rubio on Oct. 23 warned that intelligence on the Iranian assassination plots needs to reach more US personnel than currently authorized.
It does not name specific targets, countries outside the Middle East, or the nature of the plots, but notes that the underlying intelligence has already been shared with senior State Department officials.
Clayton offered to downgrade sensitive details so the information could be circulated more widely to those potentially at risk.
US officials said the intelligence is one factor behind the State Department’s decision to reduce personnel at several American embassies across the Middle East amid fears of a broader regional conflict.
On Friday, a US official confirmed reductions in diplomatic and government staff at embassies in the United Arab Emirates, Lebanon, Qatar, and Jordan.
“We decided that due to the threat of Houthi attacks and Iranian terror plots we need to reduce our footprint and keep only essential staff,” the official said.
Earlier this week, the State Department ordered family members and nonessential personnel to leave the US Embassy in Riyadh and the consulates in Jeddah and Dhahran.
Officials have linked the Saudi drawdown primarily to escalating attacks by Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen, which have targeted civilian airports and critical infrastructure in the kingdom, causing casualties and travel disruptions.
US officials also fear the Houthis could expand their attacks beyond Saudi Arabia.
The security concerns come against a backdrop of heightened regional tensions and the possibility of renewed US and ‘Israeli’ military operations against Iran, potentially after the midterm elections.
President Donald Trump, speaking at a rally in Florida on Friday, referenced the possibility of further action, saying, “We may do another little Operation Epic Fury, or [the Iranians] will agree [to a deal].”
He added, “If they’re smart, they will just say, ‘Let’s get down to business,’ but I doubt they will do that because perhaps they’re not smart.”
Two explosions heard in Riyadh following alert: AFP
Two explosions rang out in Riyadh early Saturday, an AFP journalist in the Saudi capital said, as Yemen's Houthis keep up strikes on the kingdom.
The Saudi civil defence said an early warning system was activated to alert residents to a potential threat.
US could strike Iran this weekend, envoy says
The United States could strike Iran as soon as this weekend, a US envoy said Friday, after mounting threats by both Washington and ‘Israel’.
“Could there be a strike this weekend? Absolutely,” Tom Barrack, the US ambassador to Turkiye and point man on Syria who does not have a direct role in Iran, told podcast host Mario Nawfal.
President Donald Trump “is very clear. He’s open and available and accessible to a deal and we’ve been at the table for months and months and months,” Barrack said in an interview as he visited the Gulf.
‘Israeli’ Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who faces elections Tuesday, has in recent days repeatedly vowed to topple the clerical state in Iran, following two major bombing campaigns against it since last year.
Trump has also signalled an openness to resuming strikes after a long deadlock in diplomacy, although he earlier said it would not happen before US congressional elections on November 3.
Barrack, in remarks that contradict Netanyahu, said the US was not looking to topple the Islamic republic, a sworn enemy of the United States and ‘Israel’ since a 1979 revolution toppled the pro-Western shah.
“If you keep threatening the world, our allies, the Gulf, there will be a consequence. The consequence won’t be regime change,” Barrack said.
“The United States — the president of the United States — has said he’s not interested in regime change,” he added.
“The problem with regime change always is, what’s the day-two scenario?”
US quietly moving diplomats from Middle East amid Iran escalation fears: CNN
The United States is discreetly relocating some diplomats and their family members from multiple Middle East posts amid rising fears of regional escalation involving Iran and its proxies, according to a report by CNN citing multiple sources familiar with the matter.
The State Department this week ordered the departure of non-emergency personnel and all family members from Saudi Arabia, citing intensified attacks by Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen.
Officials said the ordered departure responded to Houthi strikes on civilian targets, including airports and critical infrastructure that have caused casualties and major travel disruptions.
State Department spokesperson Tommy Pigott stated that “Iranian-supported Houthis have increasingly engaged in hostilities against Saudi Arabia, including attacks on civilian airports and other critical infrastructure resulting in civilian casualties and severe travel disruptions,” adding that the safety and security of personnel and their families remain the department’s highest priority.
At the same time, sources told CNN the department has been quietly adjusting staffing at other embassies, including those in Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, and Lebanon.
Unlike the formal ordered departure for Saudi Arabia, these other posts remain under “restricted operations” status and have not been publicly announced as changing status, though family members who only recently returned are again being directed to leave.
Many of those affected describe the moves as a frustrating and chaotic repeat of earlier evacuations during the height of the US-‘Israeli’ conflict with Iran that began in late February.
“To say it has been chaotic is an understatement,” one US diplomat told CNN, noting that financial support offered so far does not fully cover the costs of moving entire families, who previously had to scramble for housing and schools.
Nikki Gamer, spokesperson for the American Foreign Service Association, told CNN: “This echoes the chaos families experienced earlier this year. Some had barely settled back in before being told to leave again. They are understandably upset, confused, and angry.”
The association said families outside Saudi Arabia report being directed to leave without confirmed housing assistance or per diem allowances because their embassies are not formally changing status.
“Families deserve to know how they will pay for a place to live before they board a plane,” Gamer said.
The adjustments come as Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia have escalated and as President Donald Trump has suggested he could relaunch strikes against Iran after the midterms.
Sources indicated ‘Israel’ has lobbied—so far unsuccessfully—for more immediate action.
Communication from Washington has drawn criticism, with one source familiar with the departures describing coordination as “just as much of a sh** show” as early in the Iran conflict, and many personnel learning of the moves through news reports rather than official channels.
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Read more: Day 238| Saudi intercepts Houthi ballistic missile targeting Najran
