NYT says US, ‘Israel’ are preparing to strike Iran after elections

• The US and ‘Israeli’ militaries have drawn up specific plans for a short, intensive round of strikes on Iran after the US midterms.
• Some officials think one more big round could push Iran’s economy over the brink and force diplomatic concessions.
• Trump has repeatedly vetoed plans for a return to major combat this year, including earlier this month, when forces were nearly ready to strike.

The US and ‘Israeli’ militaries have drawn up specific plans for a new round of strikes on Iran to follow the American midterm elections, The New York Times reported Wednesday, citing US officials and others briefed on the deliberations. 

According to the Times, the two militaries have stepped up joint exercises, including flights over Iraq to rehearse strike maneuvers. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth met with ‘Israeli’ Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in ‘Israel’ this week to discuss the plans, US officials told the paper.

Targets and goals

The likely targets include Iran's energy infrastructure, nuclear facilities, and stockpiles of missiles and drones, the Times reported. Some officials believe one more heavy round of attacks could push Iran's economy to a breaking point and force diplomatic concessions after nearly eight months of conflict. Some US planners are said to be convinced that a three-day campaign could do enough economic damage to shift Tehran's position.

Other officials told the Times that the targeting would avoid refineries and oil infrastructure, because Trump wants to keep gasoline prices from rising further.

Both militaries are also reportedly drafting options against Iran's nuclear program, including a possible strike on a deeply buried site known as Pickaxe Mountain.

Trump said last week he was weighing the use of the 22,000-pound MOAB bomb there. Weapons specialists told the Times the bomb detonates above ground and would be unlikely to destroy a site built into granite. Military officials also cautioned that it would have to be dropped from a slow-moving transport plane vulnerable to Iranian air defenses.

Trump's hesitation

The report stresses that approval is far from assured. Trump has vetoed plans for a return to major combat several times this year, the Times said, including earlier this month, when the two militaries were nearly ready to strike and had put their air forces on high alert. One commander described the repeated cycle of planning and cancellation as "day-to-day whiplash."

Officials told the Times there is a small chance of action this month, but that Trump is likely to wait until after the election, partly because of his own pledge not to strike before the vote. The full US force, including three aircraft carriers, thousands of Marines, fighter jets and special operations units, will not be in place until early November, when longer nights over Iran would also favor the US military's preference for nighttime attacks.

Doubts and risks

The Times noted reasons for skepticism. The first phase of fighting, from February to April, drove up energy prices and inflation worldwide, weakened regional security and strained US stocks of missile interceptors. Western officials also observed that Iran's government has withstood economic pressure so far, despite repeated US predictions of its collapse.
Iranian officials, for their part, have said they will widen their targets beyond commercial shipping and regional energy sites to include data centers and undersea internet cables, and that the fighting would be neither quick nor limited. The Times also reported that Iran's leadership has grown less conciliatory with each round, believing the real aim is to topple the government. Its new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, remains difficult for Western intelligence to read.
Diplomacy has continued alongside the planning. US negotiators are using the threat of renewed war as leverage on the nuclear program and control of the Strait of Hormuz, but Iranian negotiators have so far refused concessions on the nuclear issue, the Times said.

‘Israeli’ politics and wider tensions

‘Israel's’ election on Oct. 27 could complicate matters. Experts told the Times that if Netanyahu loses and becomes a caretaker prime minister, launching a war would be difficult. Some analysts think he might instead use the prospect of an imminent strike to press rivals into a unity government.

The Times also reported that the State Department on Wednesday ordered nonemergency US government staff and their families to leave Saudi Arabia, where the Iran-backed Houthis continue to attack sites, a sign of the risk of regional spillover. A White House official declined to comment on military plans that "may or may not exist," saying Trump is keeping all options open to prevent Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons.

Read more: Netanyahu says overthrowing Iran’s government is key to ‘Israel’s’ security