Europe on alert for jet fuel shortage as Iran war disrupts supply

• Europe is projected to run a jet fuel deficit of 510,000 barrels per day in the fourth quarter, according to Energy Aspects data cited by Reuters.
• The US and Asia Pacific are expected to have surpluses of 18,000 and 419,000 barrels per day, respectively.
• The war has cut off nearly half of Europe's jet fuel imports.
• South Korean exports to Europe have risen to 129,000 barrels per day in September, the highest level since October 2022, but this hasn't closed the gap.

Europe is heading into the final months of the year with a significant jet fuel shortage, as the US-’Israel’ war on Iran continues to disrupt global energy supplies. Reuters reported the projection, drawing on figures from the consultancy Energy Aspects.

The data shows the continent falling 510,000 barrels per day short in the fourth quarter. Other major regions are in a very different position: the United States is expected to finish the period with a small surplus of 18,000 barrels per day, while Asia Pacific is on track for a far larger one of 419,000 barrels per day.

The conflict has severed almost half of the jet fuel Europe normally imports, leaving airlines and fuel suppliers dependent on alternative sources. South Korea has stepped in to help, sharply increasing its shipments to the continent. According to the commodities intelligence firm Kpler, European imports of South Korean jet fuel have reached 129,000 barrels per day so far in September, the highest monthly rate since October 2022.

Even so, the extra volumes from Seoul are not enough to offset the loss of supply from disrupted routes, and the projected fourth-quarter deficit remains large. With war-related disruption still ongoing, the gap between Europe and surplus regions like Asia Pacific looks set to persist.

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