Iranian offshore oil inventories expected to run out by mid-October: report

US naval blockade has halted new Iranian oil exports from the Persian Gulf, leaving Tehran reliant on dwindling offshore stockpiles that are expected to run dry soon.

According to a Wall Street Journal report, no Iranian crude has crossed the US blockade line since it was reinstated in mid-July.

Iran continues limited loadings onto tankers inside the Gulf, but those barrels remain trapped.

The country is surviving on floating stockpiles of oil that left before the blockade tightened—volumes that have fallen sharply to around 29 million barrels from about 90 million in mid-July, per ship-tracking firm Kpler.

Kpler estimates that deliveries of roughly 1 million barrels a day, mostly to China, could exhaust the remaining oil already on the water by mid-October.

Payments for previously delivered cargoes are projected to dry up by mid-December.

Iran loaded just 255,000 barrels a day onto vessels inside the Gulf in August—85% below the February-April average—with those new barrels also stuck behind the blockade.

The loss of this primary foreign-currency earner is intensifying pressure on Iran’s already battered economy.

The rial has fallen sharply, official inflation exceeds 80% year-over-year, and the International Monetary Fund forecasts a 5.4% economic contraction in 2026—the worst since the 1980s.

Oil typically funds about a third of the state budget and helps finance the military, including the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).

“Much will depend on the degree of economic pain that the Iranian regime is willing to bear to achieve its military and geopolitical objectives,” said Hamad Hussain, an economist at Capital Economics.

Ellie Geranmayeh, an Iran expert at the European Council on Foreign Relations, added: “The US campaign will have a significant effect on the average Iranian household. But in terms of Iran capitulating at the negotiating table? I have a lot of doubts. The evidence we have suggests the Iranian regime is likely to resist.”

Iranian Oil Minister Mohsen Paknejad noted that sales and deliveries have been conducted far from the Persian Gulf and Sea of Oman, reflecting reliance on earlier shipments.

Analysts such as Homayoun Falakshahi of Kpler say the blockade is also forcing production cuts, as stockpiles have not risen much and overland alternatives (truck or rail) can move only a fraction of previous seaborne volumes.

Petrochemical exports, another key hard-currency source, have similarly declined.