CIA warned Trump: Killing Khamenei could harden Iran’s regime: WSJ

• US intelligence predicted Hormuz closure, regional retaliation.
• Six-week Iran campaign becomes six-month stalemate.
• Mojtaba Khamenei remains in power as IRGC tightens grip.
• US shifts from strikes to blockade, sanctions.

Days before initiating a major military campaign against Iran on February 28, US President Donald Trump received explicit warnings from the US intelligence community that targeting Iran’s top leadership would fail to cause a regime collapse and instead trigger severe regional escalation, according to an extensive investigation by The Wall Street Journal.

During crucial Oval Office deliberations, key national security officials presented assessments indicating that eliminating Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei would produce the opposite of the administration's intended outcome.

Then-Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard briefed the US President directly, stating that targeting Iran's supreme leader would likely empower an even more unyielding hardline government.

Warnings of hardline escalation 

According to sources familiar with the high-level briefings who spoke to The Wall Street Journal, US intelligence warned that a successor regime in Tehran would view nuclear capability as its ultimate "insurance policy" against future foreign attacks.

Officials cautioned that a new leadership structure would immediately act to block the Strait of Hormuz and order direct strikes against US forces and bases stationed across the Middle East.

Simultaneously, senior Pentagon leaders raised alarms regarding expected American casualties and the rapid strain on precision-guided munitions stockpiles.

Public warnings from Iranian officials had long asserted that any direct attack would prompt an immediate shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz, threatening global energy routes.

International analysts similarly cautioned that a large-scale military offensive would compel Tehran to cross the nuclear threshold to secure regime survival.

Despite these internal and external warnings, US President Trump moved forward with the operation, persuaded by advisors who argued that the Iranian government was at an unprecedented low point and backed by offensive plans presented by Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and military commanders.

Operational reality 

Six months after the campaign began, the forecasts outlined by intelligence agencies have largely materialized, The Wall Street Journal reported.

While Ali Khamenei was killed by 'Israeli' forces early in the conflict, the government did not collapse. Instead, his son, Mojtaba Khamenei, assumed power, with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) consolidating control, resisting capitulation, and continuing to target commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz.

Rather than concluding within six weeks, the conflict has stretched into its sixth month.

US forces have suffered 18 deaths and 756 wounded, along with damaged regional bases, depleted military stockpiles, and severe disruption to global energy markets, while Iranian casualties are estimated at approximately 3,000.

Following the breakdown of successive temporary ceasefires, US President Trump has shifted away from direct offensive strikes toward an extended naval blockade and sweeping sanctions aimed at crippling Iran economically.