Iran’s grip on Hormuz weakening: Report claims shipping traffic surged nearly 400%

Iran’s hold on the Strait of Hormuz is slipping as commercial shipping traffic through the vital waterway has surged nearly 400 percent over the past two weeks, with vessels increasingly favoring a US-supported southern corridor along Oman’s coast.

According to data from the UK Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) center analyzed by CNN, nearly 200 ships navigated the strait last week—103 inbound and 89 outbound.

That marks a sharp rise from about 150 the previous week and roughly 40 vessels two weeks earlier.

The rebound brings overall traffic to around 20% of pre-war levels, when the passage routinely handled 100–140 ships daily and carried roughly 20 percent of the world’s seaborne oil.

The uptick reflects growing use of the southern Omani route, which is coordinated with US naval forces and air cover under operations that have facilitated more than 1,300 commercial vessels and over 660 million barrels of crude oil since early May.

US Central Command spokesperson Capt. Tim Hawkins stated: “Multiple routes remain free and open for commercial transit.”

Energy Secretary Chris Wright separately noted that US forces had helped move more than 15 million barrels of oil and products out of the strait in a recent period, alongside additional volumes via pipelines.

Maritime analysts and officials indicate Iran is losing effective control of the waterway it has sought to dominate since the conflict began in late February.

More than 80 percent of liquids traffic over the past two weeks has used the Omani corridor—a UN-authorized channel that Tehran strongly opposes—while many other vessels sail “dark” with transponders off or take the northern Iranian-controlled route under varying degrees of risk.

Despite the recovery, traffic remains far below normal.

UKMTO and other monitors continue to report daily commercial transits often in the single digits or low teens, with persistent threats including projectile attacks, mines, and challenges by Iranian forces.

The southern route has accounted for the majority of recent reported strikes, prompting some operators to abort planned transits or shift northward.

Pre-war, the strait saw around 130–140 vessel transits daily and carried about 15–21 million barrels of oil and products per day.

Current volumes, while improved through the US-backed corridor, still leave global energy markets sensitive to further disruptions.

Private trackers such as Windward and Kpler have recorded crude exports through Hormuz rising into the multi-million-barrel-per-day range in recent months but remaining well short of historical norms.

Shipping executives and monitors note that larger vessels and those with greater risk tolerance have been among the first to resume movements, often under protection or in coordinated groups.

“My assessment is that it’s scaling and it’s scaling quickly despite the fact that Iran is placing enormous pressure on maritime security,” said Michelle Wiese Bockmann, senior maritime intelligence analyst at Windward.