Trump stops short of endorsing Netanyahu as his campaign falters: Axios

• Trump has repeatedly stopped short of endorsing Benjamin Netanyahu despite being asked about the ‘Israeli’ prime minister’s election prospects.
• Growing differences over Iran, Gaza and Lebanon have reportedly strained relations between Trump and Netanyahu.

When US President Donald Trump met Benjamin Netanyahu in the Oval Office two weeks ago, Trump asked the ‘Israeli’ prime minister how he was performing in the polls ahead of the October 27 election, Axios reported.

Netanyahu reportedly paused before one of his advisers responded: "Mr. President, he is winning," according to a US official familiar with the exchange.

However, polling cited by Axios indicates that Netanyahu’s coalition currently holds between 49 and 53 seats, well below the 61 needed to form a government and the 68 seats held by his coalition today.

Opposition parties are projected to win between 67 and 70 seats, while former Israel Defense Forces Chief of Staff Gadi Eizenkot has recorded stronger favorability ratings than Netanyahu in most polls.

Netanyahu does not necessarily need to win an outright majority. His immediate political objective is reportedly to secure enough seats to prevent his opponents from forming a government without the support of Arab-Israeli parties.

If neither side can form a coalition, Netanyahu could remain caretaker prime minister until another election is held.

According to Axios, that scenario is currently considered a real possibility.

Some of Trump’s advisers initially expected him to endorse Netanyahu during the first weeks of the war in Iran.

Trump had also strongly advocated for Netanyahu to receive a pardon in his corruption case at the time.

However, the prolonged war and differences over foreign policy and domestic political interests have increasingly strained the relationship.

Two senior US officials told Axios that while Trump likes Netanyahu personally, he has become frustrated with his decisions and policies.

According to two people who recently discussed Netanyahu with Trump, the president described him as "his own worst enemy."

The differences have extended beyond Iran to Lebanon and the Gaza Strip.

The latest strain reportedly followed Netanyahu’s public rejection of Trump’s Gaza Board of Peace plan for disarming Hamas.

A senior US official said the White House viewed Netanyahu’s statement as election-season politics rather than necessarily a firm policy position.

The official said Washington understood Netanyahu’s political considerations but expected him to continue following US requests, particularly regarding restraint in Gaza.

Netanyahu later spoke with Trump envoy Jared Kushner and agreed to give the plan a chance, while also pledging to reduce attacks on Gaza to allow the demilitarization process to begin, according to a US official.

Since then, ‘Israel’ has significantly reduced strikes on Gaza and ‘Israeli’ forces have pulled back to the Yellow Line under the terms of the agreement.

Kushner is expected to visit ‘Israel’ next week to meet Netanyahu and other officials and discuss the Gaza plan.

Several of Netanyahu’s political rivals, including Eizenkot and former prime ministers Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid, have reportedly expressed concern that Trump could eventually endorse the incumbent.

According to Axios, opposition figures used mutual friends, donors and political allies to urge Trump and his advisers to remain neutral.

A former US official familiar with the situation said Netanyahu’s weak polling numbers may also have discouraged Trump from intervening in the election.

Trump has been asked by reporters four times in recent weeks whether he supports Netanyahu’s re-election. Each time, he has stopped short of endorsing him.

When radio host Hugh Hewitt asked Trump in July whether there was anyone in ‘Israel’ better suited for the job, Trump avoided directly backing Netanyahu and said he did not know most of his opponents.

In several recent interviews, Trump praised Netanyahu as a "great wartime prime minister," but referred to him in the past tense.

Although ‘Israeli’ officials said Trump privately raised the issue of a pardon during his latest meeting with Netanyahu, he has not discussed it publicly in recent months.

The October election is considered important to Trump’s broader Middle East agenda, particularly as the Iran crisis remains in a "no deal, no war" limbo.

Trump is also seeking to advance his Gaza peace plan, make progress in negotiations between ‘Israel’ and Lebanon, reach a security agreement between ‘Israel’ and Syria, and pursue a potential peace agreement between ‘Israel’ and Saudi Arabia.

A senior US official told Axios that the White House does not want domestic political disputes in ‘Israel’ to derail its regional agenda, particularly after the political crisis in 2019 led to three consecutive elections and delayed Middle East diplomacy.