$50 billion worth of oil wiped from global crude market in 50 days

• Gulf crude output fell 40% in March, tightening global supply
• Jet fuel exports from Gulf states dropped, hitting airlines hard
• Experts say recovery could take several years due to infrastructure damage

The global market has been deprived of over $50 billion in unproduced crude oil since the outbreak of the US-Iran war nearly 50 days ago. 

According to analysts and Reuters data, the economic shockwaves from this crisis will continue to resonate for months, if not years. 

On Friday, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi stated that the Strait of Hormuz is open following a recent ceasefire agreement in Lebanon. 

Concurrently, US President Donald Trump expressed optimism that a deal to resolve the broader Iran war will be reached "soon," though an exact timeline remains elusive.

Since hostilities escalated in late February, an unprecedented 500 million barrels of crude and condensate have been wiped from the global market, according to Kpler data, marking the most severe energy supply disruption in modern history.

Read more: Oil rises as Trump Hormuz deadline nears, markets brace for volatility

Key facts

Gulf Arab states saw crude production plummet by about 8 million barrels per day in March. This missing volume is roughly equal to the total combined output of energy giants ExxonMobil and Chevron.

Shipments of jet fuel from Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the UAE, Kuwait, Bahrain, and Oman crashed from 19.6 million barrels in February to a combined total of just 4.1 million barrels across March and April. 

With crude prices hovering around $100 per barrel during the conflict, the missing supply translates to about $50 billion in lost revenue, notes Kpler senior crude analyst Johannes Rauball. 

Full restoration could take years

Data from Kpler shows that global onshore crude stockpiles have depleted by approximately 45 million barrels so far in April, with ongoing production outages sitting at around 12 million barrels per day since late March.

According to Rauball, returning the heavier crude fields in Kuwait and Iraq to normal operating capacity could take four to five months, guaranteeing that inventory drawdowns will persist through the summer. 

Furthermore, extensive damage to regional refining assets and Qatar's Ras Laffan LNG facility means that completely rebuilding the Middle East's energy infrastructure could be a years-long endeavor.