Ex-IOF official says Lebanon deal hinges on Hezbollah disarmament
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- Former 'Israel' forces spokesperson says agreement depends on Hezbollah being disarmed.
- Lebanon’s disarmament steps face doubts over implementation and capacity.
A potential agreement between Lebanon and Israel could deliver long-term stability and economic benefits, but its success will depend on a single decisive factor, according to a former spokesperson for the IOF.
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Jonathan Conricus told CNN that while an agreement would serve Israel’s interests, “the devil is in the details,” emphasizing that Hezbollah’s disarmament remains central to any durable peace framework.
Hezbollah disarmament as core issue
Conricus said the key question shaping future stability is whether Hezbollah can be fully disarmed through Lebanese government mechanisms.
“If Hezbollah is disarmed through this process with the Lebanese government, then there can be peace, there can be stability, there can be prosperity and many positive things for Lebanese and for Israelis,” he said.
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He warned that failure to achieve disarmament would risk renewed war.
“If Hezbollah isn’t disarmed, that means future war and fighting and rockets and suffering,” he added, arguing that outcomes depend on whether Lebanon can implement commitments it has made.
Lebanon’s plan under scrutiny
In January, Lebanon said it had completed the first phase of a plan to disarm Hezbollah and other armed groups in the south of the country. However, Israel described the progress as “far from sufficient,” reflecting ongoing disagreement over implementation.
By March, Lebanon’s government declared Hezbollah’s military activities illegal, while also acknowledging that it lacks the capacity to enforce disarmament independently.
The gap between political decisions and enforcement on the ground continues to raise questions over the state’s ability to assert full control over armed groups.
Military balance concerns
Conricus also questioned whether Lebanon’s armed forces are capable of confronting Hezbollah’s military strength, describing a significant imbalance.
“When you look at the balance of power between the two organizations, Hezbollah still needs to be weakened significantly, militarily speaking,” he said.
The comments highlight a central obstacle in negotiations: whether Lebanese institutions can enforce sovereignty without triggering further escalation in the region.
