Iran retains missile arsenal despite heavy strikes, US assessment says
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- US intelligence estimates Iran still holds thousands of ballistic missiles despite sustained military strikes.
- Reports suggest Tehran can reactivate underground launch systems and rebuild capabilities over time.
A new US intelligence assessment, cited by The Wall Street Journal, indicates that Iran continues to possess thousands of ballistic missiles despite months of heavy strikes targeting its military infrastructure.
The findings suggest that Tehran retains the ability to reactivate underground launch platforms and preserve a significant portion of its missile force, even after what US and ‘Israel’ officials describe as a sustained campaign against its weapons systems.
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The report comes as Washington pushes to stabilize a fragile ceasefire and reshape diplomatic efforts in the region.
Underground systems still operational
According to the assessment, more than half of Iran’s known missile launch platforms were damaged, destroyed, or isolated during recent hostilities.
However, intelligence officials believe that a portion of the remaining systems are stored in fortified underground facilities and can be repaired or reactivated.
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This capability, analysts say, gives Iran the ability to gradually restore parts of its missile infrastructure even under continued pressure.
Stockpile reduced, but still significant
US and ‘Israel’ officials estimate that Iran’s missile stockpile has been reduced by roughly half during the conflict.
Despite the losses, Tehran is still believed to hold more than a thousand medium-range ballistic missiles, along with shorter-range systems that could be used in regional strikes.
The report also notes a sharp decline in Iran’s drone capabilities, which are assessed to be operating at less than half of their pre-war capacity following targeted strikes on production sites.
Limited cruise missile reserves are also believed to remain available, particularly for potential maritime or Gulf-related operations.
Diverging US assessments
US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has described Iran’s missile program as “effectively destroyed,” arguing that recent strikes severely weakened its operational capacity.
However, intelligence community assessments cited by the report present a more cautious view, warning that Iran retains the ability to rebuild key elements of its arsenal.
Former CIA analyst Kenneth Pollack said Iran has demonstrated consistent ability to “innovate and rebuild quickly,” making it a persistent regional security challenge.
Strikes target industrial base
US and ‘Israel’ military operations reportedly focused on missile production sites, storage facilities, and command infrastructure, using more than 13,000 munitions during the campaign.
US officials claim the strikes significantly degraded Iran’s defense industrial base and reduced its ability to launch large-scale attacks beyond its borders.
Despite these setbacks, analysts caution that external support from allies such as Russia or China could help Tehran recover parts of its capabilities over time.
Diplomatic pressure and regional risks
The White House says the military campaign has strengthened Washington’s leverage in ongoing diplomatic efforts aimed at containing escalation and reopening negotiations.
Officials also emphasize efforts to secure strategic waterways, including the Strait of Hormuz, while reducing risks to US and allied forces in the region.
