Day 41 | US-Iran truce hangs in balance

French President Emmanuel Macron urged US President Donald Trump and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian to include Lebanon in the ceasefire the two sides had reached.

"I expressed my hope that the ceasefire will be fully respected by each of the belligerents, across all areas of confrontation, including in Lebanon," Macron wrote on X after speaking with both leaders.

‘Israeli’ Prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu says "Iran enters this pause battered, weaker than ever," after Teheran and Washington reached a truce.

In a televised statement, Netanyahu also hails ‘Israel's’ cooperation with the United States in the war.

"Together, we launched a historic operation -- the largest the Middle East has ever seen."

Pakistan's Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif praises Iran's President Masoud Pezeshkian and US President Donald Trump for agreeing to a ceasefire and for the upcoming talks in Islamabad involving representatives from both countries.

“This ceasefire is the first step. But our true destination is lasting and durable peace, and progress of development and prosperity,” he says during a televised speech.

Hezbollah said Thursday that it will continue carrying out attacks against ‘Israel’ until “the Israeli-American aggression against our country and people stops”.

Hezbollah added that it targeted the Kibbutz of Menara with a rocket attack in response to ‘Israel’ violating the ceasefire agreement, after the ‘Israeli’ Home Front Command activated sirens in the Galilee Panhandle.

Hebrew Channel 15 said the rockets fired from Lebanon came after nine hours of calm.

Pakistan, who played a key role in mediating the ceasefire between the US and Iran, said that the truce also includes Lebanon.

This was later denied by ‘Israeli’ Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, and also by US Vice President JD Vance.

“I think the Iranians thought that the ceasefire included Lebanon, and it just didn't. We never made that promise. We never indicated that was going to be the case. What we said is that the ceasefire would be focused on Iran, and the ceasefire would be focused on America's allies,” Vance said.

Iran announced alternative routes on Thursday for ships travelling through the Strait of Hormuz, citing the risk of sea mines in the main zone of the vital waterway.

Tehran has agreed to temporarily reopen the strait, through which one-fifth of the world's oil usually passes, as part of a two-week truce.

"All ships intending to transit the Strait of Hormuz are hereby notified that in order to comply with the principles of maritime safety and to be protected from possible collisions with sea mines...they should take alternative routes for traffic in the Strait of Hormuz," Iran's Revolutionary Guards said in a statement quoted by local media.

US President Donald Trump continued Thursday morning to lambast the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), saying that they weren’t “there when we needed them.”

“NATO WASN’T THERE WHEN WE NEEDED THEM, AND THEY WON’T BE THERE IF WE NEED THEM AGAIN. REMEMBER GREENLAND, THAT BIG, POORLY RUN, PIECE OF ICE!!!” Trump said on Truth Social.

US President Donald Trump held high-stakes talks with NATO chief Mark Rutte Wednesday, with the White House saying he would discuss the possibility of leaving the alliance after it failed to join the Iran war.

Trump was alternatively looking at punishing some NATO members he believed were unhelpful during the conflict by moving US troops out of their countries, the Wall Street Journal reported.

Rutte -- the former Dutch premier dubbed the "Trump whisperer" for his skill in flattering the mercurial US leader -- entered the West Wing through a side gate and their meeting was being held behind closed doors.

"It's quite sad that NATO turned their backs on the American people over the course of the last six weeks when it's the American people who have been funding their defense," White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt told reporters.

Asked if Trump would discuss a possible withdrawal from NATO, Leavitt said: "It's something the president has discussed, and I think it's something the president will be discussing in a couple of hours with Secretary General Rutte."

The meeting comes one day after the United States and Iran agreed to a fragile two-week ceasefire.

UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer meets Saudi Arabia's Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman for bilateral talks in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, on the first stop of a Gulf tour aimed at bolstering the ceasefire in the Middle East war.

The ‘Israeli’ Home Front Command activated alarm sirens in the Galilee Panhandle following a rocket salvo from Lebanon.

• Following the announcement of a two-week ceasefire brokered by Pakistan, international oil prices plummeted by 15%, with Brent crude settling at $94.75 a barrel. 
• Strait of Hormuz Reopens: Just hours before President Trump’s "complete demolition" deadline, Iran agreed to the "safe opening" of the strategic waterway.

Oil and gas prices plunged, stock markets soared and the dollar retreated Wednesday after the United States and Iran agreed to a temporary ceasefire that could lead to the Strait of Hormuz reopening.

"A wave of relief has hit financial markets after threats of a devastating escalation of the war were replaced by a temporary truce," said Susannah Streeter, chief investment strategist at Wealth Club.

The most widely traded oil contracts fell some 15 percent to around $95 a barrel, after more than a month of conflict that killed thousands and hammered global markets.

But on Wednesday, investor relief sent markets soaring, with Wall Street's three main indexes climbing more than 2.5 percent.

Europe's main continental bourses all closed up more than three percent. Frankfurt led the way with a five-percent gain while London gained 2.5 percent, held back by weak oil companies.

Earlier, Tokyo stocks jumped 5.4 percent and Chinese indices rose around three percent.

The dollar, a safe haven in times of market turmoil, slid against the euro, yen and British pound as investors returned to riskier assets.

But traders warned that the euphoria could be short-lived. Both sides have threatened to resume hostilities if the two-week pause does not lead to an agreement.

"In reality, the markets are not pricing in peace but a window for negotiation," said John Plassard of Cite Gestion.

"And that is precisely the issue: In two weeks, either this window will lead to a lasting agreement, or it will only postpone and amplify the energy shock that everyone fears," he said.

Fractures of the deal started to emerge as ‘Israel’ launched its heaviest bombardment of Lebanon since Iran-backed group Hezbollah joined the war in early March, killing at least 112 and wounding hundreds across the country, according to authorities.

Angelo Kourkafas, investment strategist at Edward Jones, described Wednesday's financial market response as "a big relief rally" but indicated more bumps were likely.

"Every development in this war has been pretty much unpredictable and we still ... remain in a headline-driven market," he told AFP. "Potentially, there's going to be more volatility."

Oil prices remain much higher and equity prices lower than before the United States and ‘Israel’ attacked Iran on February 28.

"I don't think we're going to (quickly) go back to the levels we were at before the war," said Kathleen Brooks, research director at XTB traders. "Energy infrastructure across the Gulf has been targeted."

Maritime monitor Marine Traffic noted that two ships had transited the waterway since Iran agreed to reopen it, through which about 20 percent of the world's oil passes.

But one major German shipping company, Hapag-Lloyd, said it was too early for its trapped ships to leave the Gulf.

Shipping journal Lloyd's List estimated that around 800 ships have been stuck in the Gulf since the end of February.

The International Air Transport Association said that it would take months for jet fuel supplies and prices to normalize.

"Should talks falter or activity through the strait remain subdued, oil prices and the dollar could reverse course fairly quickly," said Matthew Ryan, head of market strategy at global financial services firm Ebury.

Shares of oil producers fell sharply while airlines were among the biggest beneficiaries.

Key figures at around 20:20 GMT

• Brent North Sea Crude: DOWN 13.3 percent at $94.75 a barrel
• West Texas Intermediate: DOWN 16.4 percent at $94.41 a barrel
• New York - Dow: UP 2.3 percent at 47,649.73 points
• New York - S&P 500: UP 2.1 percent at 6,755.68
• New York - Nasdaq Composite: UP 2.5 percent at 22,576.95
• London - FTSE 100: UP 2.5 percent at 10,608.88 (close)
• Paris - CAC 40: UP 4.5 percent at 8,263.87 (close)
• Frankfurt - DAX: UP 5.1 percent at 24,080.63 (close)
• Tokyo - Nikkei 225: UP 5.4 percent at 56,308.42 (close)
• Hong Kong - Hang Seng Index: UP 3.1 percent at 25,893.02 (close)
• Shanghai - Composite: UP 2.7 percent at 3,995.00 (close)
• Euro/dollar: UP at $1.1667 from Tuesday's $1.1595
• Pound/dollar: UP at $1.3405 from $1.3291
• Dollar/yen: DOWN at 158.353 yen from 159.62 yen
• Euro/pound: DOWN at 87.02 pence from 87.22 pence

Protestors rally against US military action in Iran during a demonstration near the White House in Washington, DC.

US President Donald Trump and ‘Israeli’ Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu spoke by phone for about 20 minutes on Tuesday night, before the former announced a ceasefire deal with Iran, according to Hebrew Channel 13.

During that conversation, Netanyahu expressed to Trump his opposition to the ceasefire, the report added.

US Vice President JD Vance urges Iran not to let the fragile ceasefire deal fall apart over ‘Israel's’ attacks on Lebanon, days before he is due to lead talks with Tehran in Pakistan.

Rallies in the cities of Tehran and Sari to mark the 40th day following the death of the country's slain supreme leader Ali Khamenei.

Washington and Tehran both claimed victory after agreeing to a two-week ceasefire and negotiations aimed at ending a war that has killed thousands across the Middle East and sparked global economic upheaval.

• Following a fragile two-week ceasefire with Iran, the White House confirmed that Trump and Rutte would discuss a potential US exit from NATO.
• The administration is reportedly considering moving US troops out of "unhelpful" member states, such as the UK.

US President Donald Trump held high-stakes talks with NATO chief Mark Rutte Wednesday, with the White House saying he would discuss the possibility of leaving the alliance after it failed to join the Iran war.

Trump was alternatively looking at punishing some NATO members he believed were unhelpful during the conflict by moving US troops out of their countries, the Wall Street Journal reported.

Rutte -- the former Dutch premier dubbed the "Trump whisperer" for his skill in flattering the mercurial US leader -- entered the West Wing through a side gate and their meeting was being held behind closed doors.

"It's quite sad that NATO turned their backs on the American people over the course of the last six weeks when it's the American people who have been funding their defense," White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt told reporters.

Asked if Trump would discuss a possible withdrawal from NATO, Leavitt said: "It's something the president has discussed, and I think it's something the president will be discussing in a couple of hours with Secretary General Rutte."

The meeting comes one day after the United States and Iran agreed to a fragile two-week ceasefire.

Trump has expressed anger at Western partners' refusal to back his war on Iran, rocking a transatlantic alliance that at the age of 77 is only two years younger than him.

The US leader has branded NATO a "paper tiger" for refusing to lead efforts to open the strategic Strait of Hormuz and for limiting US forces from using bases on their territories.

Trump has lashed out at several of them personally, lambasting UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer as "no Winston Churchill" and ridiculing Britain's aircraft carriers as "toys."

To punish NATO members seen as being unhelpful, the Trump administration is considering a plan to move out US troops and station them in other countries viewed as more supportive of the US war in Iran, according to a WSJ report.

But the plan would fall short of Trump's oft-hinted threats to pull the United States out of NATO entirely -- a move for which he would need the approval of Congress.

“Daddy”

NATO's secretary general, however, boasts a record of pulling Trump back onto his side.

Ahead of the White House visit, Rutte met with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio to talk about Iran, Russia's war against Ukraine and NATO responsibilities.

"The two leaders discussed Operation Epic Fury, ongoing US-led efforts to bring a negotiated end to the Russia-Ukraine war, and increasing coordination and burden shifting with NATO Allies," said State Department Principal Deputy Spokesperson Tommy Pigott.

Rutte will also meet with Pentagon chief Pete Hegseth during his time in Washington.

NATO has been roiled by crisis after crisis since Trump returned to power last year -- most acutely by his threat to seize the vast Arctic island of Greenland from alliance member Denmark.

Earlier this week Trump said his problems with NATO "all began" with Greenland -- although he has been threatening to pull out since his first term.

In recent months he has also pulled the rug out from under Ukraine in its war against Russia and threatened to not protect allies unless they spend more on defense.

Russia and China have been watching with glee as Trump rubbishes the alliance.

Rutte has been central to allied efforts to flatter and mollify the US leader, whom he called "daddy" at a summit last year.

On Iran, he has sought to thread the needle by calling US efforts to degrade Tehran's military capability something to "applaud."

Speaking as Rutte headed to Washington, a NATO official said he planned to "discuss current security dynamics including in the context of Iran as well as Russia's ongoing war against Ukraine" in his talks with Trump.

For coverage of the previous day, visit the link below.

Read more: Day 40 | US & Iran agree to last-minute ceasefire