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Prof. Jiang Xueqin warns of a 'global domino effect' leading to 2026 catastrophe

Published :  
3 hours ago|
  • Jiang argues that the world is connected like dominoes, where a war in one region inevitably triggers a collapse in others. The most critical "domino" is the Strait of Hormuz.
  • Jiang suggests that the current global order is failing because it relies on a "muscle-show" military system designed for the Cold War, which is ineffective against modern wars of attrition.

Renowned analyst Professor Jiang Xueqin has released a comprehensive 'step-by-step' forecast of a global systemic collapse. Warning that the world has reached a 'point of no return', Jiang identifies how specific regional tensions are set to trigger a worldwide catastrophe by 2026.


Read more: Major UAE refinery shut as Saudi Aramco warns war spells catastrophe for oil


Iran and the Strait of Hormuz: The First Domino

Jiang identifies Iran as the epicenter of the initial shock. By targeting global energy and water infrastructure rather than direct military engagement with the US, Iran's strategy triggers a global price surge.

  • The Chokepoint: The closure or disruption of the Strait of Hormuz results in a 75% drop in shipping traffic.
  • Energy Prices: Oil skyrockets past $110 per barrel, while natural gas prices in Europe climb by 60%.
  • The "Grocery Bill" Crisis: The spike in fuel and fertilizer costs leads to a global food security crisis, moving the war from the battlefield to the supermarket aisles.

The Gulf States (GCC): An Existential Threat

For the Gulf Cooperation Council countries, Jiang warns that the conflict is not merely political, but a matter of survival.

  • Water Security: Countries like Kuwait (90% reliant on desalination) and Saudi Arabia (70% reliant) face an immediate water crisis if their infrastructure is targeted by drone strikes.
  • Economic Contagion: To fund their own defense and survival, these nations may be forced to liquidate their massive investments in US financial markets, causing the American stock market to collapse rather than just "dip".

China and Taiwan: The Strategic Shift

While the Middle East burns, Jiang notes that China is watching and preparing for the final move in the Pacific.

  • Energy Dependency: China draws 40% of its energy from the Gulf corridor; any disruption forces Beijing to accelerate its regional dominance.
  • The Semiconductor Collapse: A conflict or blockade in Taiwan would cause the global semiconductor supply chain to "go dark." This would paralyze modern technology and shift the Pacific balance of power overnight.

Japan, South Korea, and India: The Struggle for Resources

According to Jiang, these major Asian economies are the most vulnerable to the "Hormuz Domino."

  • The Survival Odds: Japan (75% energy reliant on the corridor) and India (60% reliant) would see their economies collapse within months of a total blockade.
  • Remilitarization: Finding the US "security umbrella" stretched too thin, these nations will be forced to recalculate their survival, leading to a massive arms race in the East.

Russia and Europe: The Nuclear Shadow

Jiang highlights that the war in Ukraine has evolved into a dangerous nuclear standoff.

  • The Escalation Doctrine: He warns of Russia’s "escalate to de-escalate" military doctrine, where tactical nuclear weapons are a calculated option to force a ceasefire if conventional defenses fail.
  • Diplomatic Absence: By 2026, Jiang points to an "almost complete absence of communication" between nuclear adversaries, making an accidental nuclear exchange more likely than an intentional one.

"Clarity, Not Fear"

Professor Jiang concludes that this "story is still being written." He argues that the most dangerous thing a citizen can do is assume that those in charge have a plan. He urges the public to watch the Strait of Hormuz and Taiwan as the ultimate indicators of whether the final domino will fall.