Silence of Iran’s new supreme leader raises questions

International concerns are growing over the health and authority of Iran’s new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei after he remained absent from public view during Nowruz, the Persian New Year.

Instead of delivering a traditional address, he issued only a written message via Telegram, deepening speculation about his condition and role in managing Iran’s ongoing war efforts, according to Axios.

Global intelligence agencies, including the US CIA, closely monitored whether Khamenei would follow his father’s precedent of a New Year speech. His absence, combined with no pre-recorded statement, has fueled doubts about his physical state and whether he is exercising actual authority.

Reports indicate that ‘Israel’ has placed Khamenei at the top of its assassination target list. US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth claimed that Khamenei was “wounded and likely disfigured” during the strike that killed his father. Despite three weeks without any visual appearance, US and ‘Israeli’ assessments suggest he remains alive, based on failed attempts by Iranian officials to schedule meetings with him due to tight security.

The question of leadership has become a key topic in intelligence briefings to the President of the United States Donald Trump. A senior ‘Israeli’ official said there is no clear evidence that Khamenei is issuing orders. Following the assassination of former security chief Ali Larijani, who was considered a de facto leader, a power vacuum emerged that the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) appears to be filling, leveraging its extensive influence over Iran’s security, economic, and political institutions.

CIA Director John Ratcliffe told a classified congressional session that Iran faces a deep command and control crisis, though there are no signs of imminent collapse. Analysts note that the public video message from President Masoud Pezeshkian contrasted sharply with Khamenei’s absence, sending a “major red flag” regarding the leadership’s stability.

‘Israel’ believes increasing external pressure could accelerate internal fractures, though experts warn that eliminating traditional leadership figures may empower more hardline leaders, complicating the situation as the war continues.