Trump escalates rhetoric as military buildup clouds Geneva nuclear talks

Despite reports of limited progress in the second round of nuclear negotiations in Geneva, the White House has raised tensions with sharp statements asserting there are “sufficient grounds” to justify potential military action against Tehran.

The remarks coincided with media reports by Axios describing an unprecedented US military buildup, including two aircraft carriers and hundreds of fighter jets. At the same time, 'Israel' has heightened its state of readiness for what officials describe as a possible broad confrontation within days, placing diplomatic efforts at risk.

Read more: US military ready for Iran strike as Trump weighs decision

Nuclear dispute and regime change rhetoric

The long-running nuclear dispute remains the central driver of the crisis, with Washington insisting on preventing Tehran from acquiring a nuclear weapon.

However, a notable shift appears in the rhetoric of US President Donald Trump and some of his allies, who have signaled interest in going beyond nuclear restrictions toward what they describe as “regime change” in Iran.

US frustration has also intensified over Tehran’s handling of domestic protests. According to US media reports, Trump is awaiting the full deployment of military assets in the Gulf before deciding whether to translate threats into action.

Military buildup signals intent

In an analysis, Axios invoked the principle of “Chekhov’s gun,” arguing that the deployment of hundreds of aircraft and multiple carriers suggests genuine intent rather than symbolic posturing.

Analysts note that stepping back now may not align with the current administration’s approach, which views military displays as leverage for decisive outcomes.

The buildup also aligns with intensified pressure from 'Israel' to launch a comprehensive operation targeting Iran’s nuclear and missile programs in a single strike.

Read more: Iran’s FM heads to Geneva for second round of indirect nuclear talks with U.S.

Iranian vulnerabilities and oil factor

Observers suggest Trump may view the present moment as strategically favorable. Iran appears weakened following internal unrest and repeated strikes, while its regional allies are described as overstretched.

Oil market dynamics also play a role. Global supplies remain relatively stable, potentially cushioning the world economy from severe price shocks should conflict disrupt Iranian exports.

Can last-minute concessions avert war?

All scenarios remain possible. Leaks indicate Tehran has floated the idea of suspending uranium enrichment to ease US pressure.

Yet such an offer may fall short of Washington’s demands for strict oversight and substantial concessions.

With negotiations stalled and military assets positioned across the region, the Middle East appears closer to a potential large-scale campaign that could reshape the final years of Trump’s presidency and carry far-reaching consequences for regional stability.