Trump weighs four options to increase US influence over Greenland: Report
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- Trump’s recent military action in Venezuela has shifted Greenland from “political fantasy” to a potential strategic target for the US.
- Four possible paths for US influence include military invasion, economic pressure, free association, or negotiated military and commercial access.
Following the US military operation in Venezuela, Greenland’s strategic significance has moved from a theoretical debate to a real discussion in European capitals.
The British newspaper The Times reports on four possible scenarios the US might pursue to expand its influence over Greenland, a self-governing territory within the Kingdom of Denmark.
Military invasion
Though the US has the capability to occupy Greenland with little resistance due to its small population, experts warn that a military takeover could dismantle NATO and trigger Russian and Chinese responses, undermining US security in the Arctic.
Economic pressure
This is seen as the most likely scenario. The US could leverage financial incentives to sway Greenland’s population, heavily dependent on fishing and Danish subsidies. Washington has already opened a consulate in Nuuk and launched development programs, raising concerns about attempts to fuel separatist sentiments.
Free association
A “free association” agreement, similar to arrangements with Palau, Micronesia, and the Marshall Islands, could grant Greenland formal independence from Denmark while giving the US military unrestricted access to territory and trade benefits. Experts note this requires Danish parliamentary approval, which Copenhagen aims to avoid.
“Playing both sides”
In this complex scenario, Denmark retains nominal sovereignty while the US expands its military presence and secures commercial agreements to exploit Greenland’s rare minerals. Trump’s transactional approach may push for full control initially, then settle for significant influence.
On-the-ground realities
Analysts highlight three key factors shaping the situation:
- Geography and security: Nuuk is closer to the US East Coast than Denmark, and Greenland is ideal for early warning systems and potential nuclear platforms.
- Weak Danish leverage: NATO or EU support for Denmark against a US imposition is unlikely, due to potential destabilization.
- Greenlanders’ priorities: Independence remains the top goal. Surveys show 85% oppose joining the US, though opinions on Trump’s ambitions are split, 43% see economic opportunity, 45% view it as a threat.
Experts say Greenland’s leadership will need to skillfully use US interest to pressure Copenhagen, potentially securing concessions that advance long-term independence.
