World Bank estimates Syria’s reconstruction costs could exceed $200 billion

The World Bank on Tuesday released new estimates for the cost of rebuilding war-torn Syria, predicting expenses could range from USD 140 billion to USD 345 billion, with a conservative figure of USD 216 billion.

According to the report, The Syrian Conflict: Physical Damage and Reconstruction Assessment (2011-2024), the 13-year civil war caused USD 108 billion in physical damage, roughly one-third of the nation’s gross capital stock (GCS). Infrastructure suffered the most, accounting for USD 52 billion of the losses, followed by residential buildings at USD 33 billion and non-residential structures at USD 23 billion. Aleppo, Rif Dimashq, and Homs were the hardest-hit governorates.

“The damage and reconstruction cost estimates are presented in the context of an already dire macroeconomic situation,” the report noted. Syria’s gross domestic product (GDP) contracted by 53 percent between 2010 and 2022, dropping from an expected USD 67.5 billion in 2011 to USD 21.4 billion in 2024. The World Bank pointed out that the reconstruction costs are roughly ten times the country’s projected 2024 GDP, highlighting both the scale of destruction and prolonged economic collapse.

Economic sanctions and years of conflict have deepened Syria’s reliance on imports, drained foreign reserves, and sharply reduced fiscal resources. In 2024, capital expenditures were only 11 percent of their 2010 level. “These conditions further constrain Syria’s macroeconomic and fiscal capacity to be able to respond to the magnitude of reconstruction costs,” the report said.

Syrian Finance Minister Yisr Barnieh emphasized the importance of the report in understanding the scope of the challenge. “Now, more than ever, it is imperative for the international community to mobilize support and partnership to help Syria restore essential infrastructure, revitalize communities, and lay the foundation for a more resilient future for its people,” Barnieh said.

The Syrian civil war officially ended last December after former President Bashar al-Assad fled to Russia, concluding nearly six decades of Baath Party rule. Since then, the new government led by President Ahmed Al-Sharaa has been pursuing political and economic reforms, fostering social cohesion, expanding cooperation with international partners, and implementing measures to attract foreign investment.