On October 1, US President Donald Trump announced he and the first lady had tested positive for the coronavirus. Political analysts went wild: in an already unprecedented US election, how would this affect the vote in the critical last four weeks before the Nov. 3 election?

Ultimately, it won’t. Throughout the campaign season, polls have consistently shown former Vice President and Democratic candidate Joe Biden pulling ahead. Per most national polls, Biden’s maintained ten-point lead narrowly increased to a twelve-point lead this past week during Trump’s hospitalization. But now that Trump began touting a full recovery- despite just ten days passing since his diagnosis- the polls have largely stabilized again.

That’s not to say the full effects of Trump contracting the virus could not be yet to come. The ten days of missed campaigning during the final leg of election season- during which Joe Biden was able to partake in dozens of campaign activities- cannot be made up. Nor can the now-cancelled second presidential debate, which Trump pulled out of after refusing to participate virtually.

Most importantly, while Trump has taken no steps to walk back his blasé, borderline careless approach towards the coronavirus pandemic after becoming infected himself- on the contrary, he has sharpened his ‘no big deal’ rhetoric- the very fact that he tested positive could be enough to change the attitudes of many. If the man whose credibility is in part dependent upon the coronavirus being a hoax was still able to become infected, surely his supporters might need to reconsider the magnitude of the pandemic themselves.

But the more likely scenario is that Trump’s coronavirus infection- and miraculous recovery- will have little effect on the outcome of the election. While Trump did not participate in any official campaigning last week, he was particularly active on Twitter, and even hosted a de facto rally from his motorcade outside Walter Reed hospital, where supporters lined the street to send the president their well wishes. To them, his boastful win against the coronavirus only reinforces belief in his leadership. To undecided voters, it seems unlikely to sway or garner support. The same goes for him testing positive at all.

Similarly, given the disaster that was the first presidential debate- across the board, that is- it is not particularly plausible that the second debate would have provided voters with any more in-depth information on the candidates’ platforms on key issues than the first. And that’s not just due to incessant interruptions and arguing: The Washington Post reported that there were also 53 lies made between Trump and Biden. Since the second debate is not happening, it will not be known what its impact could have been, but the third debate, confirmed for Oct. 23, may provide some insight.

Testing positive for coronavirus one month before the election with a campaign built upon sweeping the virus under the rug sounds like a political nightmare. Instead, it’s just one more reason this election is exceptionally unusual. In reality, the battle for the presidency is much more dependent on who will be able to win the key battleground states like Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan, as opposed to who contracts or beats the coronavirus.